Away from the uncertainties surrounding the Middle East, and the excitement surrounding all things artificial intelligence, Latin American debt and equity markets continue the bull market that started a couple of years ago. Obviously, rising commodity prices help. But the real driver remains falling bond yields and steady currencies, themselves the product of conservative fiscal and monetary policies and rightward shifts in recent electoral results (e.g. Argentina, Chile).
On this note, Sunday will see the first round of the Colombian presidential election. The current left-wing president, Gustavo Petro, cannot run again and so the race is now set between a left-wing candidate, Iván Cepeda, a center-right candidate, Paloma Valencia, and a more populist-right candidate, Abelardo de la Espriella, who is somewhat in the vein of Argentina’s Javier Milei. The results are likely to have a deep impact on Colombian bonds and equity markets, but also perhaps put down a marker for what remains the most important election of the year in Latin America, namely the October 2026 Brazilian election.
We thought that having a catch-up on this rapidly changing landscape would make sense. As such, next week’s Gavekal webinar will focus on Latin America and feature a conversation between Gavekal CEO Louis Vincent Gave and Alexandre Larraín, the portfolio manager of the LV Gavekal Latin America Local Currency Debt fund. The aim of the call is not to review the fund, but very much to review the opportunities and possible challenges confronting Latin America today. As always, we aim for the call to be interactive so hopefully clients will come with lots of questions.
Louis will kick off with the following questions:
- Javier Milei was elected two and a half years ago and clearly the outlook for Argentina has changed, and both bonds and equities have re-rated. Is there still juice in the trade?
- One major concern for LatAm investors in the past year and a half was that Mexico would be the dog that Donald Trump would kick when things went badly. So far, this has not really happened. In fact, it sometimes feels as if Canada and Europe are receiving more of the Trumpian ire. So, is Mexico out of the woods?
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is now leading in the polls in Brazil. Would a Lula victory cap the upside for Brazilian bond markets, and thus the equity markets?
- What do you make of the first-round results in the Colombian presidential election?
- Does Chile simply remain a proxy for copper (which is fine in a copper bull market!) or can the new government unleash enough exciting reforms to get foreign investors to start paying attention?
Registration: For subscribers, please Registration: For non-subscribers, please contact sales@gavekal.com for requests to join the webinar
Milan Seminar
Thursday, October 22, 2026 8:30 AM in Milan
You and your colleagues are cordially invited to our seminar in Milan on Thursday, October 22, with Gavekal Co-Founder/CEO Louis-Vincent Gave and Europe Economist Cedric Gemehl.
The speakers will discuss the global investment outlook and provide an update on Europe market.
Milan
NH Collection Milano Touring, Via Iginio Ugo Tarchetti, 2, Milano, IT 20121
