George Osborne is praying today for the worst possible news. This morning the Office for Budget Responsibility will deliver its first independent assessment of the outlook for the British economy and the budget deficit. A shock-horror fiscal forecast from the OBR would delight the Chancellor, helping him to justify the spending cuts he plans to announce in next week’s Budget — and also his accusations about the scorched-earth legacy supposedly left behind by Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown.
Sir Alan Budd, the non-political economist appointed to head the OBR, will probably disappoint Mr Osborne. While the OBR may downgrade the growth forecasts published in Mr Darling’s March Budget, this will be mainly because the eurozone has deteriorated in the past few months. Offsetting this modest