https://gavekal.com/feeds.cfm Gavekal en-us Wed, 10 Jun 2026 12:41:35 +0800 Wed, 10 Jun 2026 12:41:35 +0800 https://gavekal.com/feeds.cfm support@gavekal.com (Gavekal) support@gavekal.com (Gavekal) http://web.gavekal.com/node/27662/view Markets continue to gyrate around the daily war headlines. We will not get excited until we see traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz and an end to the oil shock. Farther east, Tom Miller finds signs that US president Donald Trump is no longer committed to moving fast and breaking things. The next hotspot for a trade war with China could be Europe, warns Cedric Gemehl. And Russia's economy may be faltering but is not on its last legs, says Tom Holland.... Cedric Gemehl,Geoeconomics,Ideas,Tom Holland,Tom Miller, Fri, 29 May 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27662/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27662/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/27203/view Charles has long centered energy prices as a central variable in his analysis of economies and markets. Some time ago he noticed that periods of energy prices rising faster than the US equity market often turn out to be the precursor to major grizzly bear markets unfolding. Even before the latest war in the Midde East, he was nervous because his gold-based measure of the S&P 500 was indicating trouble ahead.... Charles Gave,Currencies,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas, Wed, 04 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27203/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27203/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/27067/view South African assets had a spectacular 2025, with falling real rates, a stronger rand and booming equities, supported by a rally in precious metals. Louis argues this pattern is continuing in 2026, and so South Africa is joining Latin America and much of Asia in an EM "triple merit" scenario.... Equities,Louis-Vincent Gave,The Daily, Fri, 06 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27067/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27067/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/27031/view In New Delhi on Tuesday to sign a trade agreement between the European Union and India, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen described the pact as "the mother of all deals." Well, you can't expect officials who have spent years laboring over the negotiations to undersell an agreement. But the hyperbole will leave investors wondering just how big a deal this really is.... Cedric Gemehl,The Daily,Trade,Trade Flows,Udith Sikand, Fri, 30 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27031/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27031/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/27020/view In late January, Keir Starmer paid his first visit to China as UK prime minister, proclaiming his desire for "a more sophisticated relationship" between London and Beijing. In making his trip, Starmer becomes the latest middle-power head of government to head to China bearing a conciliatory message as relations with the US deteriorate. In this video interview, Tom Miller explores how this attempt at geoeconomic derisking could play out, and examines what it all means for global investors.... Geoeconomics,Middle East,Rest of the World,Tom Miller,Trade,Video, Thu, 29 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27020/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27020/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26853/view Supporting slides for Four Market Mispricings... Anatole Kaletsky,Bond Markets,Capital Markets,Chartbooks,Consumer Markets,Equity Markets,FX Markets,Labor Market and Demographics, Thu, 18 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26853/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26853/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26498/view US equities-particularly those tied to artificial intelligence-appear to be in a bubble, says Will. The familiar signs are all there: inflated valuations, heavy capital spending, unrealistic growth projections, and vendor financing. In this report, he offers thoughts on when this equity bubble and capital spending boom might end. He also offers suggestions for how investors should be positioned in that eventuality.... Ideas,Will Denyer, Mon, 13 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26498/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26498/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26341/view How to use the Gavekal website... Ideas,Research Team, Fri, 12 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26341/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26341/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25370/view With global markets enduring a manic Monday, the question for investors is whether to buy the dip or prepare for a grizzly and long-lasting US bear market of the type not seen in more than 20 years. In this report, Louis and Charles seek to answer the key questions that investors will have in their minds as they try and make this determination.... Charles Gave,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave, Mon, 07 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25370/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25370/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25332/view The ascent of Donald Trump heralds a radical change in the US's political logos, which has essentially seen the right win the culture war, says Charles. In the domain of economics, the situation is far less clear cut, and the post-World War II settlement will be harder to shift. That battle has now begun in earnest and in this piece, Charles outlines a framework for measuring the struggle between the incumbents and the insurgents.... Charles Gave,China Economic Quarterly,Economic Activity,Economic Data,Economic Growth,Geoeconomics,Ideas, Mon, 31 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25332/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25332/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25194/view As the geopolitical order that has presided in Western Europe for the last 80 years gets rewritten, European nations are expected to rearm and to greatly expand their armies. This dynamic has spurred a huge rally in European defense stocks. Louis is not so sure that this is how things will play out, and wonders if investors are stuck in "first order" thinking.... Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave,Robostocks, Tue, 04 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25194/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25194/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25054/view Custom dashboard - Frederik Kammerer... Ideas,Research Team, Wed, 05 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25054/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25054/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24983/view Since Donald Trump's reelection, bonds have continued their sell-off, while equities have given up much of the gains from their euphoric post-election rally. The surprise has come from value stocks, which have seen a staggering sell-off despite a new administration in Washington that promises deregulation and tax cuts. In this year's first Conversation, Louis and Anatole examine what's been going on in markets and debate what lies ahead with Washington D.C. under new (old) management.... Anatole Kaletsky,Conversation,Louis-Vincent Gave, Mon, 20 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24983/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24983/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24751/view Much has changed since Donald Trump become president eight years ago. Yet there is a belief among many commentators that the key drivers of Trump's administration will be the same as eight years ago, even if its manner of governing is different. Louis is skeptical about this simply because the objective reality of the world facing Trump 2.0 is quite different than last time around. In this piece, he aims to explain what this means for policy, economies and markets.... Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave, Thu, 21 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24751/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24751/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24691/view Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell made things crystal clear Thursday. Asked if he would resign should incoming US president Donald Trump demand it, Powell responded with a curt "no". In this video, US economist Will Denyer assesses the probability of open conflict between the White House and Federal Reserve.... Video,Will Denyer, Fri, 08 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24691/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24691/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24114/view June's unexpectedly soft US inflation report raised hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates before the year end and possibly before November's elections. In this report, Will focuses on the policy implications of the CPI release and the market implications flowing from it.... Bond Markets,Capital Markets,Consumer Markets,Equity Markets,FX Markets,Ideas,Inflation/Deflation,Labor Market and Demographics,Money and Inflation,Money and Inflation,Will Denyer, Fri, 12 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24114/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24114/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24050/view How to add Gavekal's private podcast to your mobile podcast app.... Ideas,Research Team, Sat, 29 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24050/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24050/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23944/view Saudi Arabia's US$11bn follow-on offering for oil giant Aramco follows a spate of Saudi sovereign issues this year in domestic and international debt markets. Nevertheless, talk that Riyadh is facing a mounting fiscal squeeze as it attempts to fund a list of expensive mega-projects as part of an unrealistic economic transition program are exaggerated.... Commodities and Energy,Equities,Tom Holland,Tom Miller,Video, Fri, 07 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23944/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23944/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23772/view The next Opec+ meeting is still more than three weeks away on June 1st, but already the preparatory dance has begun. At the end of June, "voluntary" Opec+ oil production cuts of some 2.2mn barrels per day are due to expire. The first job for the export cartels' ministers when they meet in Vienna will be to decide whether or not to roll over these reductions until the end of the year.... Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,The Daily,Tom Holland, Wed, 08 May 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23772/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23772/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23712/view The US imposed sanctions on Iran's oil exports in 2018, after Donald Trump withdrew from the six-power Iran nuclear deal negotiated under Barack Obama. However, under Biden enforcement has been relatively lax. Tom examines the new US sanctions regime on Iranian oil and the impact on the oil market.... Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,The Daily,Tom Holland, Thu, 25 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23712/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23712/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23699/view With rising US treasury yields causing pain in the currency markets and now among US growth stocks, investors will be wondering what the rise in yields will break next. Could rising yields break the back of the gold bull market? Or the unfolding emerging market boom? What about economic growth in general? In such an environment, are government bonds still the default risk-free asset?... Currencies,Equities,Louis-Vincent Gave,The Daily, Mon, 22 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23699/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23699/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23663/view The one thing Gavekal's founding partners have agreed on since Russia's invasion of Ukraine is that the world has now moved into an inflationary boom. And since the war, the gold price has risen by a quarter and long-dated US treasuries have fallen by a third. Will the events of the weekend change any of this?... Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Louis-Vincent Gave,The Daily, Mon, 15 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23663/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23663/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23625/view The resurgence in crypto-currency prices again begs the question: what really is its "value proposition", or put another way, what function does it serve? Louis looks at its potential to be a "store of value" and the dynamics for this asset's recent boom.... Currencies,Louis-Vincent Gave,The Daily, Fri, 05 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23625/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23625/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22741/view Real yields on the 10-year bund fell as market began to price in German reunification, dropping to reach 4% at the end of 1989, and the sky seemed the limit for Germany's asset markets. In May 1990, the German stock market made a relative peak against the US and French markets-a peak it has never surpassed. Charles examines the historical lessons and ponders the implications for today's developed economies.... Charles Gave,Currencies,The Daily, Tue, 26 Sep 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22741/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22741/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22095/view So much for wilting in a banking crisis. The Federal Reserve hiked short rates by another 25bp on Wednesday and continued to shrink its security holdings. As investors flee US regional banks, it is clear that the sector's prospects will worsen before they improve. The same goes for the US economy.... Banking,The Daily,Will Denyer, Thu, 04 May 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22095/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22095/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22059/view Investors got a sharp reminder on Tuesday that the US banking crisis and broader credit crunch are not over. So, where are we in the evolution of this banking crisis? And what does it mean for the US economic outlook?... Equities,Real Estate,The Daily,Will Denyer, Wed, 26 Apr 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22059/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22059/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21388/view One thing the UK's warring political tribes agree on is that among the UK's biggest economic problems is its dismal productivity growth. However, one thing neither side seems to have considered is that the rise in gilt yields over the last two years may help to solve their productivity problems.... Fixed Income,Nick Andrews,The Daily, Fri, 20 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21388/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21388/view#article-comment