https://gavekal.com/feeds.cfm Gavekal en-us Wed, 10 Jun 2026 12:40:13 +0800 Wed, 10 Jun 2026 12:40:13 +0800 https://gavekal.com/feeds.cfm support@gavekal.com (Gavekal) support@gavekal.com (Gavekal) http://web.gavekal.com/node/27301/view During Asian hours, and at various points in the day, gold fell as much as -8%, silver -10%, the Kospi shed -6% and the Nikkei lost -4%. By any measure, it felt like a liquidation/capitulation event. Usually, such events will unleash some kind of policy response. So in the face of such a sell-off, what could we expect?... Americas,Asia,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Equities,Europe,France,Geoeconomics,Germany,Italy,Japan,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,Spain,The Daily,United Kingdom,United States, Tue, 24 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27301/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27301/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26518/view France's latest prime minister, Sebastien Lecornu, has survived two no-confidence motions in the National Assembly. But his victory has come at a cost. In this interview, Cedric Gemehl charts the political currents in the run-up to France's 2027 presidential election and examines why French financial markets have remained relatively calm amid all the political turbulence.... Cedric Gemehl,Currencies,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,France,Politics,Politics,Politics,Video, Thu, 16 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26518/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26518/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26372/view On a global basis, political tensions continue to swing from green to amber to bright red, and then back again. For fundamentally oriented investors, this raises the question of whether politics ever truly be ignored. In this note, Didier shows how economics trumps politics most of the time, but not all of the time.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Currencies,Didier Darcet,Economy,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Other Reports,Politics,Politics,Politics,United States, Thu, 18 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26372/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26372/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26362/view Until Trump showed up, the tacit contract underwritten by the US was that the US would defend Europe against Russia for free. This would allow European countries to keep cutting military spending and distribute social goodies that kept citizens happy. Trump has now shredded this contract. Charles argues that sooner rather than later, Europe is likely to return to the control of the men of the trees.... Americas,Asia,Charles Gave,China,China,Equities,Europe,Geoeconomics,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily, Wed, 17 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26362/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26362/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26286/view Wednesday's grand military parade through Beijing and the earlier Tianjin summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, hosted by Xi Jinping and attended by both Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin, have emphasized the growth of economic partnerships on the Eurasian landmass in defiance of the established US-led international order. In this video interview, Tom Miller assesses the depth of India's diplomatic reengagement with China, and considers the economic implications of the strengthening Eurasian relations.... Asia,China,China,Europe,Geoeconomics,India,Politics,Politics,Politics,Russia,Tom Miller,Video, Wed, 03 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26286/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26286/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26252/view France's stock and bond markets have reacted negatively to Monday's news that the government of prime minister François Bayrou will face a September 8 confidence vote in the National Assembly. In itself, this fresh crisis is unsurprising. The plot twist is that it is Bayrou himself, not France's opposition parties, that has called the vote. Cedric maps the potential outcomes.... Cedric Gemehl,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,France,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily, Wed, 27 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26252/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26252/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26222/view Ten months after they agreed to unfreeze economic ties, the glacial thaw between India and China is producing more meltwater. While a full and immediate normalization of relations is probably too much to hope for, India appears to have made a tactical decision to re-engage with its strategic foe.... Asia,China,China,Geoeconomics,India,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily,Tom Miller, Wed, 20 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26222/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26222/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26042/view Rumors have lately been running rampant that China's leader Xi Jinping is being edged aside. There are no concrete reasons to believe these rumors are true, but the question remains: why should a large number of Gavekal clients suddenly care? Louis says the interest reflects three important unfolding market trends and it seems that investors may now be looking for a reason to redeploy capital to China.... China,China,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily, Thu, 17 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26042/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26042/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26034/view Speculation about the health and hold on power of China's top leader Xi Jinping is nothing new, but the latest rumors seem especially persistent. Is there any concrete public evidence to suggest that Xi might be losing his grip on power? Christopher argues that on close inspection, the existing evidence largely crumbles.... China,China,Christopher Beddor,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily, Wed, 16 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26034/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26034/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25750/view Political risk is once again rearing its head in France. With the new leader of the Republicans pushing to the right, and with a new leader of the Socialists likely to track to the left, the minority coalition of prime minister François Bayrou is looking less secure. With the next round of budget negotiations this fall a probable crunch point, Cedric Gemehl examines the forces at work and assesses the risks for French debt and equity markets.... Cedric Gemehl,Europe,Fixed Income,France,Politics,Politics,Politics,Video, Thu, 22 May 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25750/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25750/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25665/view It is said that the Germans have a word for everything. So perhaps the word that best captures the political drama that unfolded in Germany's parliament Tuesday would be Merzschmerz. This describes the pain-der Schmerz-Friedrich Merz must have felt when he became the first ever candidate for chancellor of the Federal Republic to fail in the first-round parliamentary vote for the post.... Cedric Gemehl,Equities,Europe,Germany,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily, Wed, 07 May 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25665/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25665/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25613/view Washington is finally waking up to the fact that Donald Trump overestimated his leverage with China and is now stuck in a trade war that he cannot win. The question is how long it will take to organize a retreat that could pave the way for negotiations with Beijing, and what form this retreat will take, writes Arthur Kroeber. Meanwhile, Tom Miller examines the US proposal to impose port fees on Chinese-owned ships and looks at the hurdles still facing the sale of CK Hutchison's global ports business.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,Asia,China,China,Europe,Geoeconomics,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics,Tom Miller,Trade,United States, Fri, 25 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25613/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25613/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25548/view As Donald Trump attempts to pivot from a US trade war against everyone, to building a global alliance against China, how will other countries react to his offer? Louis looks at the carrots and sticks the US and China can muster and argues that the US has a much diminished position compared to its heyday, while China looks more attractive as a partner.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Europe,Geoeconomics,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily,United States, Tue, 15 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25548/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25548/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25114/view The markets' sanguine reaction to January's adverse CPI print is only likely to encourage the US administration of Donald Trump to pursue its inflationary policy mix of rapid growth alongside import tariffs and mass deportations of illegal immigrants. This policy mix poses the risk of a fresh cyclical upswing in US inflation, warns Anatole, and indicates that US bond yields remain too low.... Americas,Anatole Kaletsky,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics,United States, Mon, 17 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25114/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25114/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25082/view In a recent interview, Steve Bannon, former adviser to Donald Trump, explained that the president's strategy is to make every day a "day of thunder." If the administration comes out with 100 things at once, explained Bannon, the media is overwhelmed. It's not just the media! Investors have definitely been kept on their toes by the news flow. Consider just some of the recent developments so far in 2025 that have the potential to shift market narratives.... Americas,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Equities,Fixed Income,Geoeconomics,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily,United States, Mon, 10 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25082/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25082/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24972/view Donald Trump will take office on Monday, vowing to use massive tariffs-and other forms of coercion-to remake the world on America-first lines. We are launching a biweekly Geoeconomics Monitor which will offer short takes on key developments. In today's first edition, we assess the impacts of Trump's tariff-based foreign policy, the impact on oil of prospective peace deals, and how emerging economies will hedge their bets.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,Asia,Brazil,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Europe,Ideas,Other Latin America,Politics,Politics,Politics,Tom Holland,Tom Miller,Trade,United States, Fri, 17 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24972/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24972/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24968/view Investor attitudes to Europe's right wing populist parties have changed beyond all recognition. A decade ago, the prospect that Italy's Fratelli d'Italia, the French Rassemblement National or Germany's Alternative für Deutschland might gain power would have sent most investors into conniptions. Today, investors barely shrug their shoulders. This is a complete reversal in the zeitgeist. There are two main reasons behind it, both with major implications for investors says Cedric.... Cedric Gemehl,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Eastern Europe,Europe,Fixed Income,France,Germany,Italy,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily, Fri, 17 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24968/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24968/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24504/view The issue of inflation is figuring heavily in the US presidential campaign and was the subject of debate between the vice president candidates on Wednesday. In this video interview, Will addresses the political economy of inflation in late 2024 in the US and suggests ways that investors should think about the reaction function of policymakers.... Americas,Fixed Income,Politics,Politics,Politics,United States,Video,Will Denyer, Wed, 02 Oct 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24504/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24504/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24410/view US presidential elections are terrific entertainment. Given their cost (a couple of billion US dollars for either side), this is just as well. Yet amid all this excitement, it feels as if investors may be overlooking one of the most important developments of the campaign so far: the change in the people around Donald Trump, especially when it comes to foreign policy.... Americas,China,China,Equities,Fixed Income,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily,United States, Thu, 12 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24410/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24410/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24387/view Having consulted across the political spectrum, France's president has decided that the common denominator in his divided country is Michel Barnier. Two months after voters returned the Fifth Republic's most politically fragmented National Assembly ever, Emmanuel Macron appointed the arch-Gaullist and former European Union commissioner as France's new prime minister.... Cedric Gemehl,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,France,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily, Fri, 06 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24387/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24387/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24330/view Following the finale of the Democratic convention in Chicago, Will and KX look at the headline economic policy proposals of the two candidates-on tax rates, housing, inflation, industrial policy and trade-examine where and how they diverge, and assess the likely effects of different possible outcomes in November for asset prices and the US dollar.... Americas,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Equities,Fixed Income,Politics,Politics,Politics,Real Estate,Tan Kai Xian,United States,Video,Will Denyer, Fri, 23 Aug 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24330/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24330/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24147/view What are the investment implications of Joe Biden's withdrawal from the US presidential election? The most important and inevitable market consequence of a US election that has suddenly become more competitive, is a big increase in uncertainty about the outcome. Given US hegemony in geopolitics and global finance, this effect will cast a shadow over every part of the world economy.... Americas,Anatole Kaletsky,Currencies,Equities,Fixed Income,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily,United States, Mon, 22 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24147/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24147/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24117/view One of Gavekal's go-to lines is that money managers are not paid to forecast, but to adapt. This is especially true when it comes to political events. With this in mind, the events of the past few weeks-Joe Biden's shockingly poor debate performance, followed by Saturday's attempted assassination of Donald Trump-all but guarantee a strong Republican performance in November's US elections.... Americas,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Equities,Fixed Income,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily,United States, Mon, 15 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24117/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24117/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24109/view China's Communist Party is gearing up to hold its Third Plenum later this month, an event where top leader Xi Jinping will have a platform to articulate and possibly revise his vision for the economy. With domestic consumers in the doldrums, and trade tensions escalating, is a course correction for China coming? In this webinar our team of China experts explained what to expect, and not to expect, from this high-level conclave.... Andrew Batson,China,China,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Politics,Politics,Politics,Thomas Gatley,Tilly Zhang,Webinar, Fri, 12 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24109/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24109/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24087/view The results of France's parliamentary election have left the pundits arguing about who will be in charge of the French government. But the real question, argues Louis, is who will really be in charge of French fiscal policy: Emmanuel Macron, the French hard left, or the bureaucrats of Brussels. The answer will be crucial for the trajectory of eurozone financial markets.... Currencies,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,France,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics, Mon, 08 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24087/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24087/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24085/view Sunday's vote showed a growing French fondness for a political ménage à trois. The result of the election affirmed a three-way split, with all parties being well short of the 289 deputies needed for a majority. So what next? It is the president's prerogative to choose the prime minister and in the coming days-and possibly weeks-Macron will consult with political leaders to see if one of three options can fly.... Cedric Gemehl,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,France,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily, Mon, 08 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24085/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24085/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24080/view The Labour Party has achieved the biggest swing in British parliamentary history, while the Conservatives have suffered a near-extinction event. This electoral revolution was propelled by the one-word title on Labour's manifesto cover page: "Change". But the main result of Labour's triumph will be to keep everything that matters in Britain pretty much the same as before.... Anatole Kaletsky,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily,United Kingdom, Fri, 05 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24080/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24080/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24027/view The US economy grew faster than expected last year, in part because it got a solid fiscal boost. In 2024, that extra demand will be less pronounced, which is one reason to expect slower growth this year. Looking ahead, Will argues that the direction of fiscal policy will be decided in November's general election-with relatively clear implications for financial markets, and less clear implications for deficits and growth.... Americas,Currencies,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics,United States,Will Denyer, Tue, 25 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24027/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24027/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23992/view Last Friday, Charles warned that France could face difficulties over the coming quarters financing her budget deficit. If France does run into problems selling the debt she needs to issue to fund her budget, it will be a major black-swan event, and would bode ill for the euro.... Charles Gave,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,France,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily, Tue, 18 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23992/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23992/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23980/view The long-term average yield spread between the French and Danish 10-years has been roughly 25bp. An investor who bought the Danish bond and sold the French in early 2021 when the spread was around zero has seen the spread widen to 65bp in the years since, leaving him sitting on a reasonable gain. The question Charles asks is: should he now take his profit?... Charles Gave,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,France,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily, Fri, 14 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23980/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23980/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23958/view Emmanuel Macron's decision following his party's dismal showing in Sunday's European elections to dissolve the French parliament and call early legislative elections triggered a flurry of questions from clients. In this short paper, Louis argues that there may be method to Macron's apparent madness.... Europe,France,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics, Tue, 11 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23958/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23958/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23956/view Trying to explain the peculiarities of French political thinking to outsiders is a thankless task. But Charles attempts to do so anyway, stressing the two cardinal principles of legitimacy and legality for a ruler to be accepted by the French people.... Charles Gave,Europe,France,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics, Tue, 11 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23956/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23956/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23947/view Add another election to your list for 2024. Following a crushing defeat for his party in Sunday's European Parliament election, French president Emmanuel Macron has called a snap parliamentary election in France itself, to be held in two rounds on June 30 and July 7. The question for any outside observer of French politics is: why on earth did Macron do this now?... Cedric Gemehl,Europe,Fixed Income,France,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily, Mon, 10 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23947/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23947/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23914/view Voters across the European Union's 27 member states will go to the polls this week to elect a new European Parliament. The outcome will influence both the EU's political priorities for the next five years and the selection of senior officials. In this report, Cedric addresses typical client questions about the exercise's impact on policymaking, Europe's economic outlook and financial markets.... Cedric Gemehl,Currencies,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics, Mon, 03 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23914/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23914/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23904/view In May 2016, Charles wrote a piece arguing that the old political split between left and right was about to be replaced by a new dividing line: the separation between localists and globalists. The following month, the UK voted for Brexit and later that year, Donald Trump won the US presidency. As that same struggle once again intensifies, Charles revisits his analysis and seeks to draw some investment conclusions.... Americas,Asia,Charles Gave,China,China,Europe,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics, Fri, 31 May 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23904/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23904/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23881/view The quirks of India's electoral system usually don't merit much attention from investors. The current general election, however, is taking place as India is in the middle of a bubble in equity options trading that has seen volumes more than double over the past 12 months. As a result, the combination of first-past-the-post anomalies with frenzied options trading could easily lead to outsized moves in asset prices when the election results are announced on June 4.... Asia,Equities,India,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily,Udith Sikand, Tue, 28 May 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23881/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23881/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23676/view Like the dog that failed to bark in the night, the most interesting development in China's economy this year is what hasn't happened: a substantial stimulus. What's the real reason for the government's cautious approach? Andrew considers a few possible reasons and lays out the implications for macro policy going forward.... Andrew Batson,China,China,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily, Wed, 17 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23676/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23676/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23644/view Even as US employment growth has remained strong in recent months, wage growth has continued to ease. Kai Xian attributes this paradox in part to rapid immigration into the US, which is supporting the supply of new workers. This implies that immigration policy will have a significant influence on the US labor market, wage growth and inflation over the coming years.... Americas,Equities,Fixed Income,Politics,Politics,Politics,Tan Kai Xian,United States,Video, Wed, 10 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23644/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23644/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23618/view Tom recently conducted a research trip to Vietnam and found that the key issue vexing foreign investors in the country is fallout from an escalating "anti-corruption" campaign, which has paralyzed economic policymaking. In this interview, he discusses whether the resulting power struggle within the ruling Communist Party could upend what has been one of the world's best development stories over recent years.... Asia,Equities,Fixed Income,Politics,Politics,Politics,Southeast Asia,Tom Miller,Video, Thu, 04 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23618/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23618/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23555/view With the hugely popular prime minister Narendra Modi at the helm, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party looks certain to emerge as the largest party for a third consecutive time. The only uncertainty argue Tom and Udith is the scale of victory, and whether Modi will use his third-and probably final-term to pursue constitutional reforms that fundamentally alters the Indian state.... Asia,Ideas,India,Politics,Politics,Politics,Tom Miller,Udith Sikand, Thu, 21 Mar 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23555/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23555/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23524/view There is a lot to take on board in the news right now, with crypto prices soaring, the Mag 7 stalling, the US dollar weakening, US inflation reaccelerating, the Bank of Japan looking to shift policy, gold in a renewed bull market...and fitting it all into one handy narrative is a tall ask. Louis attempts to tie it all together.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Equities,Europe,Japan,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily,United States, Thu, 14 Mar 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23524/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23524/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23497/view The first week of March saw China's government present its economic policy targets and fiscal plans for the year ahead. In this video interview, Christopher peers through the official fog to assess the degree of policy support on offer for China's economy and discusses how this affects the growth outlook.... China,China,Christopher Beddor,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Politics,Politics,Politics,Video, Fri, 08 Mar 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23497/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23497/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23495/view It always looked by far the most likely outcome. Now it is confirmed. Donald Trump will be the Republican Party's candidate in November's US presidential election. If a week is a long time in politics, eight months feels like an eternity. Nevertheless, it is now necessary to consider what a new Trump term might mean for US government policy and financial markets.... Americas,Commodities,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Politics,Politics,Politics,Tan Kai Xian,The Daily,Tom Holland,Trade,United States,Will Denyer, Fri, 08 Mar 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23495/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23495/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23467/view The Indian juggernaut thunders on. GDP data released on Thursday showed that growth accelerated to 8.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of calendar 2023. That was the fastest growth for six quarters, and nearly 2pp faster than the consensus expectation of 6.6%. The GDP blowout cements India's position as the world's fastest-growing major economy, and keeps it on track to overtake Japan and Germany to become the world's third largest economy by 2027.... Asia,Equities,India,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily,Tom Miller,Udith Sikand, Fri, 01 Mar 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23467/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23467/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23344/view In the days that followed the imposition of Russian sanctions, the Swiss franc fell, but since then it has recovered strongly. To explain this situation, Louis explores the premium that investors may be placing on Swiss political stability in an uncertain world.... Currencies,Europe,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,Switzerland, Tue, 06 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23344/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23344/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23324/view Protests by European farmers have a range of causes, from annoyance at green policies to anger at inflationary dynamics and frustration at the elitism on display among policymakers in European capitals, contends Louis. But what does this backlash mean for European politics in a year that will see a new European parliament elected?... Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics, Thu, 01 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23324/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23324/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23310/view Is the US Federal Reserve a political institution? Some readers will immediately shoot back "Everything's political." Others will be inclined to answer that the Fed's policymakers are serious people, who take their inflation mandate and the Fed's independence seriously, and who wouldn't dream of letting their personal political preferences interfere with monetary policy. In a presidential election year, the answer clearly matters.... Americas,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily,United States,Will Denyer, Tue, 30 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23310/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23310/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23240/view Taiwan is a key reason-although certainly not the only reason-the majority of international investors today perceive China to be "uninvestible." This perception is a marked turnaround from a year ago, when most investors thought China's post-Covid reopening would lead to a bounce. A year on, we now know this was wishful thinking.... China,China,Equities,Fixed Income,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,Real Estate,The Daily, Mon, 15 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23240/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23240/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23231/view In the French Army, we referred to it as the L.E.M, the loi d'emmerdement maximum: when things go wrong, problems start accumulating. In Anglo-Saxon countries, this idea is referred to as Murphy's Law, although the precise rendering is more "if something can go wrong, it will go wrong". In this piece, Louis ponders the negative news flow out of the US lately.... Americas,Fixed Income,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily,United States, Fri, 12 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23231/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23231/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23206/view The presidential election in Taiwan this Saturday may deliver an unprecedented third term for the Democratic Progressive Party. Three DPP victories in a row could convince China that the island is drifting irreversibly towards independence. In the long run, this might push Beijing to a more hard-line Taiwan policy. In the short run, its response will be restrained.... China,China,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily,Tom Miller, Thu, 11 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23206/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23206/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23203/view Gavekal's senior partners convened for a roundtable discussion addressing the big themes they see impacting the global economy in the coming year and therefore driving financial markets.... Americas,Anatole Kaletsky,Asia,Charles Gave,China,China,Currencies,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,Webinar, Thu, 11 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23203/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23203/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23121/view Following the US Federal Reserve's surprisingly dovish pivot Thursday, a number of clients have asked "what does Jay Powell know that we do not?" Louis's best answer has to be that "he's looking at the poll numbers for the US presidential election." But on reflection, the Fed's apparent shift goes hand in hand with news of the magnitude of the US federal deficit over the first two months of the fiscal year.... Americas,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily,United States, Thu, 14 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23121/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23121/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23119/view In last week's seminar in Beijing, Louis-Vincent Gave presented his latest view on global strategy. Arthur Kroeber joined remotely to present an update on the US-China relationship and geopolitical risks. Wei He, Rosealea Yao and Ernan Cui from the Dragonomics team presented the latest developments, and Andrew Batson hosted the panel for a Q&A session.... Andrew Batson,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Ernan Cui,Fixed Income,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,Real Estate,Trade,Wei He, Thu, 14 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23119/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23119/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23090/view Europe's latest data releases show an economy that is weak but not worsening. The hope for investors is that a soft-landing scenario plays out, but risks abound that could threaten this rosy outlook. Our European analysts assess where the eurozone economy is heading and what it means for regional financial assets.... Cedric Gemehl,Eastern Europe,Europe,Fixed Income,France,Germany,Italy,Nick Andrews,Politics,Politics,Politics,Simon Pritchard,Spain,Webinar, Thu, 07 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23090/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23090/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23061/view Dutch voters clearly liked the "Netherlands first" platform of Geert Wilders. It remains to be seen if Wilders's Party for Freedom can form a government, but such an outcome may put a core European Union state on a collision course with Brussels. It means what happens in the Hague may not stay in the Hague.... Cedric Gemehl,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily, Fri, 01 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23061/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23061/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23021/view In the spring, nearly 1bn Indians will decide whether Narendra Modi wins a third term as prime minister. Before then, in a warmup for the general election, five states are going to the polls. The result of these contests will go a long way to dictating the policy approach of the world's fastest growing big economy. Tom recently sat down with close watchers of Indian politics in Delhi and Mumbai and came to five main conclusions about what lies ahead.... Asia,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,India,Politics,Politics,Politics,Tom Miller, Wed, 22 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23021/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23021/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23014/view The November 15 ruling by the Karlsruhe Constitutional Court throws the German government's spending plans for the next couple of years into doubt. But in the longer run, it will spark a political debate over the future of Germany's constitutional debt brake. Cedric sets out the possible outcomes, and argues that the chance Germany will opt for a major growth-driving fiscal expansion cannot be ruled out.... Cedric Gemehl,Economy,Europe,Fixed Income,Germany,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics, Tue, 21 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23014/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23014/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23004/view There is little doubt that Argentina's long economic agony has cast a long shadow over wider Latin American markets. However, the good news coming out of the country should help trigger a paradigm shift in foreign investors' perceptions of the broader Latin American region-a shift which is more than warranted given the region's fundamental strengths and attractive valuations.... Americas,Brazil,Equities,Fixed Income,Louis-Vincent Gave,Other Latin America,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily, Mon, 20 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23004/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23004/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22867/view Poland is lurching back to the center ground of European politics with a coalition led by the big beast Donald Tusk, expected to soon form a government. This is good news for architects of a closer European Union and is likely to benefit Poland's economy.... Cedric Gemehl,Currencies,Eastern Europe,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Politics,Politics,Politics,Video, Fri, 20 Oct 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22867/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22867/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22812/view For a number of reasons ranging from high mortgage rates, softening labor market and fiscal uncertainty, the markets are starting to price in a less hawkish Federal Reserve. Louis examines the three main scenarios, and what it means for asset prices.... Americas,Fixed Income,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily,United States, Wed, 11 Oct 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22812/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22812/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22781/view Kevin McCarthy became the first Speaker of the US House of Representatives to be ousted. While the US economy should feel little near-term impact from the political imbroglio, the chance of a shutdown within six weeks has risen. That threat is likely to increase equity volatility.... Americas,Politics,Politics,Politics,Tan Kai Xian,The Daily,United States, Wed, 04 Oct 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22781/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22781/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22703/view Why isn't Chinese top leader Xi Jinping heeding calls to stimulate China's economy? Louis suggests the answer is that Beijing and Washington are engaged in a Mexican stand-off. Will China blink first, and release stimulus that would trigger outflows, supporting the US dollar and US treasuries? Or will the US Federal reserve be forced by rising treasury yields to embrace yield curve control?... Americas,China,China,Currencies,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,United States, Fri, 15 Sep 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22703/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22703/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22696/view Early on Wednesday morning, cruise missiles were launched against a Russian ship repair plant in Sevastopol. Three missiles hit their target and two ships undergoing repairs were reportedly damaged. The provision by Nato-and use by Ukraine-of cruise missiles marks an escalation in the war that begs the question of how Vladimir Putin will respond?... Americas,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,Russia,The Daily,United States, Thu, 14 Sep 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22696/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22696/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22648/view On his first visit to China in four years, Tom Miller was struck by China's increasingly isolationist mood, as the country's leadership stresses the primacy of national security and self-sufficiency. In this video interview, Tom describes the effects these twin policy tracks are having on the ground, outlines the impact on foreign businesses and the potential consequences for China's economic growth.... China,China,Politics,Politics,Politics,Tom Miller,Video, Thu, 31 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22648/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22648/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22634/view In response to its ouster in 2018, UMNO joined a progressive multi-ethnic coalition government led by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. UMNO's problem is that it did terribly in state elections held two weeks ago, losing support among its core Malay electoral base. The worry for investors is that the economic cost of this new era of more fragmented politics is now coming due.... Asia,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics,Trade,Vincent Tsui, Wed, 30 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22634/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22634/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22623/view Thailand has reached a messy political accommodation. No one is very happy about the arrangement, but the hope is for political stability. The concern for investors, Vincent argues, is that Thailand is slipping into a stasis which may benefit bondholders but leaves the economy with few fresh growth drivers and thus a weak equity outlook.... Asia,Equities,Politics,Politics,Politics,Video,Vincent Tsui, Fri, 25 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22623/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22623/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22476/view Spain is set for a period of protracted political wrangling following Sunday's inconclusive election. But such interludes of political uncertainty are nothing new in Spain. What will matter far more for investors in the eurozone's fourth largest economy will be how the positive and negative cyclical forces currently at work in the economy play out over the coming months.... Cedric Gemehl,Consumption,Economy,Europe,Fixed Income,Politics,Politics,Politics,Spain,The Daily, Tue, 25 Jul 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22476/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22476/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22455/view In mid-July, the German government published its first-ever China strategy, which emphasized the economic security risks posed by Germany's relations with China. This contrasted with Berlin's previous stance, which has always prioritized commercial engagement.... China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Germany,Politics,Politics,Politics,Trade,Video, Thu, 20 Jul 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22455/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22455/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22418/view So far so good: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen discussed key issues with senior Chinese economic officials last weekend and discussions were apparently cordial and professional in tone. Yellen's visit-along with the recent embrace of the "derisking, not decoupling" catch-phrase-suggests that the US is starting to place some realistic limits on its efforts to constrain China.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Fixed Income,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily,Trade,United States, Wed, 12 Jul 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22418/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22418/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22415/view Indian equities are soaring as foreign investors ditch China in search of the next big thing. As Charles Gave has argued in recent pieces, this time both the geopolitics and economics are firmly in India's favor. Both the US and Russia seek to further their relations with India, and it has welcomed both with open arms. In this piece, Tom seeks to identify India's true interests.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Ideas,India,Politics,Politics,Politics,Russia,Tom Miller,United States, Tue, 11 Jul 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22415/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22415/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22364/view We spent last weekend worrying about the possibility of a Russian civil war. This weekend we had to contemplate harrowing scenes in all major French cities that had the look of a civil war. Louis tackled this topic on Friday, but escalating lawlessness has spurred more questions from clients.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Currencies,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,France,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily, Mon, 03 Jul 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22364/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22364/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22361/view Once again, France's urban fringes are aflame with riots. Contemplating the latest outburst of unrest in a long string of disturbances over recent decades, Louis concludes that France is a sick and divided country. Traditionally, such divided societies have healed themselves only by seizing and sacrificing a convenient scapegoat. Who, he wonders, could be the sacrificial victim this time?... Economy,Europe,France,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics, Fri, 30 Jun 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22361/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22361/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22294/view After three years of Covid-induced inertia, Beijing is fashioning a strategy to counter Washington's containment policy. This matters for investors because it is influencing corporate supply chain decisions and changing the risk calculus in different regions. Tom Miller has specialized in understanding China's relationships with non-OECD nations and in this webinar explains how China's strategy is likely to play out.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Fixed Income,Politics,Politics,Politics,Southeast Asia,Tom Miller,United States,Webinar, Fri, 16 Jun 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22294/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22294/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22278/view In the near term, Silvio Berlusconi will be remembered outside Italy primarily for his colorful character and social life. But in the longer run, the former Italian prime minister who died on Monday may be remembered principally for the impact of his terms in power on Italy's economy.... Currencies,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Italy,Nick Andrews,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily, Tue, 13 Jun 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22278/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22278/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22247/view Amid all the debate about whether or not the US economy will fall into a recession this year, two questions are often overlooked. What exactly is a recession? And why does the definition matter? In this paper, Anatole argues trenchantly that the "technical" definition favored by most observers-two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth-is dangerously misleading, and obscures the true nature of the risk facing the US economy and markets.... Americas,Anatole Kaletsky,Economy,Fixed Income,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics,United States, Tue, 06 Jun 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22247/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22247/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22137/view Turkey and Thailand go to the polls on May 14. Both countries have seen their share of authoritarian policymaking and populist democratic politics. In yesterday's webinar, Udith Sikand and Vincent Tsui assessed each economy's prospects and sought to draw some common lessons.... Americas,Asia,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Politics,Politics,Politics,Udith Sikand,Vincent Tsui,Webinar, Fri, 12 May 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22137/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22137/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21888/view After weeks of strikes and escalating social unrest, President Emmanuel Macron's pension reform finally won legislative approval on Monday. Alas, for Macron, the political mechanism he used to pass the initiative will further divide French politics and make it hard to get fresh reforms through parliament.... Cedric Gemehl,Europe,France,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics, Tue, 21 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21888/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21888/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21404/view News that Brazil and Argentina want to initiate a regional common currency has grabbed headlines. While any euro-style "sur" will be years in the making, we will know in a few months whether Brazil can weather political instability and reap the benefits that should accrue from an improving macroeconomic situation.... Americas,Brazil,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Politics,Politics,Politics,The Daily,Udith Sikand, Thu, 26 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21404/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21404/view#article-comment