https://gavekal.com/feeds.cfm Gavekal en-us Wed, 10 Jun 2026 12:39:01 +0800 Wed, 10 Jun 2026 12:39:01 +0800 https://gavekal.com/feeds.cfm support@gavekal.com (Gavekal) support@gavekal.com (Gavekal) http://web.gavekal.com/node/27555/view Expectations are low for this week's summit in Beijing between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. The baseline scenario is that the two sides will reaffirm their ceasefire on technology and rare earth export controls, that China will agree to increase its purchases of American goods, and that the US sets up a "Board of Trade" to make sure those purchase commitments are met. There is no grand bargain in the offing, but Arthur argues there is potential for progress in a couple of areas that would signal a deeper shift in the relationship.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Geoeconomics,Ideas,Trade,United States, Tue, 12 May 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27555/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27555/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26766/view China's technology companies face two big external obstacles to progress. Semiconductor companies and AI developers have to deal with US export controls while electric vehicle and green energy companies are up against protectionist barriers. But how effective are these barriers really?... Americas,China,China,Equities,Geoeconomics,Ideas,Laila Khawaja,Trade,United States, Mon, 01 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26766/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26766/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26618/view The trade truce reached by presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in Busan last week was not very substantive, but it was significant. In the short run, the global trading system will enjoy a period of stability until the midterms. In the longer run, China has scored an important win by using its rare-earths leverage to force Washington to back down on export controls for the first time. The days of the US being able to sanction China with impunity are over.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Geoeconomics,Ideas,Trade,United States, Tue, 04 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26618/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26618/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26245/view Global technology competition is increasingly defined by the ways in which states support their own tech ecosystems while trying to impede those of their rivals. Here, we examine how China supports new tech industries not just through subsidies but through conjuring up state-led demand, and dissect China's role in the US pharmaceutical supply chain to assess how much risk the sector faces from American tariffs and import restrictions.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Equities,Gavekal Technologies Briefing,Geoeconomics,Trade,United States, Mon, 25 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26245/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26245/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26185/view In this edition of Gavekal Technologies Briefing we explore the many forces at work trying to influence US-China talks on export controls, the risks to China's booming pharmaceutical sector from security rules in Washington, and Beijing's political campaign to undo the excess capacity in solar energy gear that a previous political campaign created.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Equities,Geoeconomics,Ideas,Tilly Zhang,Trade,United States,Wei He, Mon, 11 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26185/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26185/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25860/view China and the US are talking again, after the first phone call between Presidents Trump and Xi since Trump took office. But the path toward a substantive trade agreement is strewn with boulders. Arthur Kroeber and Andrew Batson discussed how China will handle the trade talks, what it will do to support its economy, and how seriously we should take its policy pivot towards more consumption-led growth.... Americas,Andrew Batson,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Equities,Ideas,Trade,United States, Fri, 13 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25860/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25860/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25850/view The latest trade negotiations drama in London probably leaves us back where we were a month ago-though the precise terms of the agreement are not yet public. China's hardball tactics have exposed some vulnerabilities among the US and its allies and marginally increased the chance that Washington will give some ground. But the deal space remains narrow.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Geoeconomics,Ideas,Trade,United States, Thu, 12 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25850/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25850/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25800/view Fresh hostilities between the US and China show that the many questions left hanging after the Geneva ceasefire in mid-May still have no satisfactory answers. It is not clear if US trade policy is run by President Donald Trump, his trade negotiators or the national security team, and the overall objectives are as muddled as ever. Arthur examines the obstacles to a deal between the two economies.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Geoeconomics,Ideas,Trade,United States, Mon, 02 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25800/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25800/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25717/view Investors were rewarded on Monday for their bets that a negotiated settlement will be reached in the United States-led trade war. This follows Britain and the US agreeing an outline trade deal, and an Anglo-Indian trade deal, suggesting that the old liberal trading order is not dead. Our team picked through these developments to assess if the trade war is over before it got going.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,Asia,Cedric Gemehl,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Europe,Geoeconomics,Ideas,Tom Miller,Trade,Udith Sikand, Fri, 16 May 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25717/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25717/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25694/view With this weekend's US-China ceasefire, all of Donald Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs of April 2 have been eliminated. Markets are relieved that the worst-case scenario has been avoided, but the actual-case scenario is bad enough to hurt global growth and push up inflation. Arthur examines various scenarios and what to expect in the coming weeks and months.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Equities,Geoeconomics,Ideas,Trade,United States, Tue, 13 May 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25694/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25694/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25629/view The first four months of 2025 have seen a succession of shocks severely damage the narrative of US exceptionalism that has prevailed in global financial markets for the last few years. In this strategy chartbook, Gavekal analysts examine what this diminution of belief in the US means for US markets, and look at which assets and markets outside the US stand to benefit and which to avoid.... Americas,Asia,Brazil,Cedric Gemehl,China,China,Europe,Germany,Ideas,Japan,Korea,Other Latin America,Southeast Asia,Tan Kai Xian,Thomas Gatley,Trade,Udith Sikand,United States,Will Denyer, Wed, 30 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25629/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25629/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25620/view Unless a deal is reached soon to reverse recent tariff hikes, a vast majority of US-China bilateral trade is a thing of the past. However, Thomas argues that Chinese exporters have already established sophisticated beachheads for triangular trade and production outside the mainland. As the new tariffs start to bite, this cross-border extension of supply chains will grow all the more important.... Americas,China,China,Geoeconomics,Ideas,Thomas Gatley,Trade,United States, Tue, 29 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25620/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25620/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25570/view A week of tariff chaos has left the US and China locked in an all-out trade war, with tariffs in both directions now over 100%. The two sides have dug in to maximalist positions, which spells bad news for both economies, and for global trade. Arthur Kroeber, Andrew Batson and Thomas Gatley discuss the economic, political and financial dimensions of this unprecedented crisis.... Americas,Andrew Batson,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Geoeconomics,Ideas,Thomas Gatley,Trade,United States, Fri, 18 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25570/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25570/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25561/view China's growth momentum slowed a bit in 1Q25 from 4Q24, but stimulus and exports helped to boost it in March. Wei and the Dragonomics team argue that this calm will not last: new US tariffs will deliver a shock to exports, and China's policymakers will step up stimulus measures in response.... China,China,Commodities and Energy,Dragonomics Team,Equities,Fixed Income,Quick Take,Real Estate,Trade,Wei He, Wed, 16 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25561/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25561/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25410/view Now that the US and China have put embargo-level tariffs on each other's goods, the global supply chains for both countries are heading for dramatic shocks. Companies in both countries will find ways to evade and circumvent the tariffs, but higher costs and some disruption will be unavoidable. Where will the disruption be most severe?... Americas,Andrew Batson,China,China,Equities,Geoeconomics,Ideas,Trade,United States, Mon, 14 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25410/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25410/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25396/view US President Donald Trump has, for the moment, settled on a tariff strategy that maximally targets China. In this piece, Thomas argues that the massive gap between tariffs on China and everyone else creates powerful incentives for tariff avoidance, and a global set of options for circumvention.... Americas,China,China,Geoeconomics,Ideas,Thomas Gatley,Trade,United States, Fri, 11 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25396/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25396/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25354/view If all of Donald Trump's announced "reciprocal" tariffs go into effect on April 9, the effective levy on US imports will zoom up to over 25%, the highest since the early 1900s and an increase of nearly 20pp from the current level. The big question now is whether the rest of the world will bargain for lower rates, or accept high US tariffs as the new normal and adjust around them. Our team of country economists convened to analyze Wednesday's announcements and discuss what this all means for the global macro situation and for specific regions.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,Asia,Brazil,Canada,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Geoeconomics,Ideas,India,Japan,Korea,Other Latin America,Taiwan,Thomas Gatley,Trade,Udith Sikand,United Kingdom,United States,Will Denyer, Thu, 03 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25354/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25354/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25347/view US President Donald Trump announced a package of tariff hikes that make the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 look tame by comparison. Thomas and Wei argue that this is the worst-case trade scenario for China: massive tariff hikes with no clear path to negotiations, as well as the risk of a wider shock to global economic growth. Chinese policymakers will need to step up stimulus efforts in response.... China,China,Commodities and Energy,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Real Estate,Thomas Gatley,Trade,Wei He, Thu, 03 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25347/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25347/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25203/view European policymakers face the biggest strategic upheaval since World War II and a potential trans-Atlantic trade war for good measure. On the plus side for those with a Keynesian bent, the European Union may be spurred to cast off self-imposed fiscal rules which have constrained its performance over the last 15 years. In this webinar, Anatole and Cedric assess the choices that Europe faces and what different outcomes will mean for growth and markets.... Anatole Kaletsky,Arthur Kroeber,Cedric Gemehl,Currencies,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Germany,Ideas,Trade, Thu, 06 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25203/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25203/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25013/view The relief over US President Donald Trump's decision not to impose tariffs in his first week in office may be premature. Not only did he immediately change tack by threatening to impose tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China, on February 1, but the substance of his executive order on trade shows that plenty of actions are under active consideration.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Geoeconomics,Ideas,Trade,United States, Mon, 27 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25013/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25013/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25004/view All eyes were on the White House after Donald Trump's inauguration on Monday to see the initial flurry of executive orders that may indicate his governing priorities. Would he pursuse a maximalist trade-protection agenda, or invite allies and rivals alike to the bargaining table? Would he move quickly towards mass deportations of Illegal immigrants or be more surgical in his approach? Our team sat down to unpack the flurry of news from Trump's first days in office.... Americas,Anatole Kaletsky,Asia,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Geoeconomics,Ideas,Thomas Gatley,Trade,United States,Will Denyer, Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25004/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25004/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24852/view Selecting worthwhile reading from the millions of books published around the world each year can be a frustrating task. So let Gavekal do the job for you, secure in the knowledge that you will find illumination in our analysts' seven-volume holiday book list.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Christopher Beddor,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Dragonomics Team,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave,Real Estate,Research Team,Tan Kai Xian,Tilly Zhang,Trade,Wei He,Will Denyer, Fri, 13 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24852/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24852/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24773/view No sooner had Donald Trump calmed markets by appointing Wall Street veteran Scott Bessent as his treasury secretary than he riled them up again by threatening to impose tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada, as well as a 10% hike on China. Arthur explores what these developments mean for US trade policy in Trump's second term.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Equities,Ideas,Trade,United States, Wed, 27 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24773/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24773/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24652/view Former US President Donald Trump has on several occasions threatened to impose tariffs of 50-60% on Chinese imports, and up to 20% on imports from the rest of the world, if he should return to office. Chinese exporters have done very well despite the tariffs Trump imposed over 2018-20, but the factors that enabled that outperformance will not reoccur today. In this piece, Thomas explains why a second round of Trump tariffs would likely hurt a lot worse than the first.... China,China,Ideas,Thomas Gatley,Trade, Thu, 31 Oct 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24652/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24652/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24133/view A new spirit of mercantilism is abroad in the US, with Donald Trump's Republican Party proposing a "baseline tariff" on all goods imports, as well as targeted higher tariffs on imports from China, should it capture the White House in November's election. In this interview, Yanmei assesses what this means.... Americas,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Equities,Europe,Ideas,Trade,United States, Wed, 17 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24133/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24133/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23813/view The new backlash to China's exports is here, with the US expected to announce higher tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and other goods. Andrew argues that the trends of increasing manufacturing investment in China and rising protectionism in the developed world look well entrenched, and explores three scenarios for how those tensions might play out.... Andrew Batson,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Real Estate,Trade, Tue, 14 May 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23813/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23813/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23620/view This webinar examines the probable extent of anti-China protectionism around the world, assesses the consequences for China's manufacturing industries and growth outlook, and gauges the risk to other economies of Chinese retaliation.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Macro,Southeast Asia,Thomas Gatley,Tom Miller,Trade,United States, Thu, 04 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23620/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23620/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23119/view In last week's seminar in Beijing, Louis-Vincent Gave presented his latest view on global strategy. Arthur Kroeber joined remotely to present an update on the US-China relationship and geopolitical risks. Wei He, Rosealea Yao and Ernan Cui from the Dragonomics team presented the latest developments, and Andrew Batson hosted the panel for a Q&A session.... Andrew Batson,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Ernan Cui,Fixed Income,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,Real Estate,Trade,Wei He, Thu, 14 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23119/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23119/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22819/view As the pandemic-era boom in US imports has cooled off, purchases from China have come down dramatically: China now accounts for just 14% of US goods imports, down from a pre-trade-war high of around 22%. Is trade decoupling in full swing? Not quite. Much of this apparent decline is due to trade diversion and tariff evasion. The main impact of the trade and technology war has actually been to make supply chains more intricate and opaque.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Ideas,Southeast Asia,Thomas Gatley,Trade,United States, Thu, 12 Oct 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22819/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22819/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22749/view At out latest seminar in Paris, the speakers discussed the macro outlook in core OECD economies, the chance of a strong Chinese recovery and the pathway of emerging economies that seem to be disengaging from the traditional US dollar-centered monetary system. They also examined what these macro trends mean for investment strategy and asset allocation.... Americas,Asia,Cedric Gemehl,China,China,Didier Darcet,Equities,Europe,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave,Thomas Gatley,Trade, Wed, 27 Sep 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22749/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22749/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22557/view On Wednesday the administration of US president Joe Biden unveiled proposed restrictions on US investment in some Chinese technology sectors. The executive order on outbound investment screening adds a new tool to the US government's tech control arsenal against China.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Trade,United States, Thu, 10 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22557/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22557/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22418/view So far so good: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen discussed key issues with senior Chinese economic officials last weekend and discussions were apparently cordial and professional in tone. Yellen's visit-along with the recent embrace of the "derisking, not decoupling" catch-phrase-suggests that the US is starting to place some realistic limits on its efforts to constrain China.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Fixed Income,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics,Trade,United States, Wed, 12 Jul 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22418/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22418/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22256/view China's export data missed expectations in a big way in May, falling -7.5% year-on-year just two months after they dramatically beat expectations in March, rising 14.8%. Both of these swings had the same cause: the supply-side disruptions caused by China's Covid lockdowns and messy reopening.... China,China,Fixed Income,Ideas,Thomas Gatley,Trade, Thu, 08 Jun 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22256/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22256/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22168/view Until recently the US government's approach to China was to pile up sanctions and export restrictions, without any hint of when and where the moves might stop. That has shifted in recent months, with US officials suggesting the country now wants to push the pause button. Arthur and Yanmei take the temperature of the relationship and discuss where it goes next.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Currencies,Equities,Fixed Income,Multimedia,Trade,United States, Fri, 19 May 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22168/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22168/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21941/view As US firms operating in key industries get huge subsidies under the sprawling Inflation Reduction Act and Chinese firms consolidate their dominance in sectors like battery technology, European firms feel hemmed in on all sides. In this webinar, our team assesses the options open to Europe and what it all means for the region's longer-term growth outlook.... Cedric Gemehl,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Ideas,Nick Andrews,Trade, Fri, 31 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21941/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21941/view#article-comment