https://gavekal.com/feeds.cfm Gavekal en-us Wed, 10 Jun 2026 12:39:40 +0800 Wed, 10 Jun 2026 12:39:40 +0800 https://gavekal.com/feeds.cfm support@gavekal.com (Gavekal) support@gavekal.com (Gavekal) http://web.gavekal.com/node/26353/view Amid a raft of central bank meetings this week, investors will focus on two fronts: monetary policy direction, and their ability to resist political interference. Udith argues that EM central bank credibility and independence has largely held up, and that the trajectory of monetary policy and rate differentials in the months ahead points toward US dollar weakness... Americas,Asia,Europe,Fixed Income,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,Monetary Policy,Southeast Asia,Spain,The Daily,Udith Sikand,United States, Tue, 16 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26353/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26353/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22600/view On Monday, China surprised market participants with the second unexpected interest-rate decision in two weeks. Analysts had penciled in -15bp cuts to the benchmark lending rates this week. Instead, the one-year lending rate was lowered by only -10bp, and the five-year rate was kept unchanged. What is going on?... China,China,Equities,Fixed Income,Monetary Policy,The Daily,Wei He,Xiaoxi Zhang, Mon, 21 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22600/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22600/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22569/view The relationship between exchange rates and inflation is complicated. On one hand, if inflation is allowed to rise unchecked, a currency will collapse. But the faster the inflation rate, the more likely the central bank is to tighten monetary policy, which will push up real yields and slow money supply growth, and be positive for the exchange rate. So which logic dominates?... Americas,Asia,Canada,China,China,Currencies,Europe,Japan,Monetary Policy,Scandinavia,The Daily,United Kingdom,United States,Will Denyer, Mon, 14 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22569/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22569/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22559/view Despite 525bp of interest rate hikes in less than 18 months, far from sliding into recession as many observers expected, the US economy continues to grow at a respectable if unspectacular rate and unemployment remains close to 50-year lows at just 3.5%. In this video interview, Tan Kai Xian digs into what is different about this cycle of monetary tightening-and what remains the same.... Americas,Equities,Fixed Income,Monetary Policy,Tan Kai Xian,United States,Video, Thu, 10 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22559/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22559/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22275/view This is the third and final part of a series of articles in which Charles reviews key lessons learnt in his career. The purpose of the exercise is not to indulge in nostalgia but assess key changes now unfolding in the international finance system as the "imperial privilege" of the US dollar-centered era morphs into something new. He argues that this new more decentralized system of international trade and settlement may be less efficient than its predecessor, but it should be anti-fragile in nature. He thinks this shift is broadly to be welcomed.... Americas,Asia,Charles Gave,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Equities,Europe,Ideas,Monetary Policy, Mon, 12 Jun 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22275/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22275/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21875/view Policy makers and Wall Street's big banks have been hosing down fire risks in the US banking system with emergency liquidity. But the measures so far will not be enough, and time is running out for more assertive action to halt the emerging crisis.... Americas,Ideas,Monetary Policy,Tan Kai Xian,United States,Will Denyer, Fri, 17 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21875/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21875/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21825/view Federal Reserve boss Jay Powell told Congress Tuesday that he will do whatever it takes to get inflation and inflation expectations back down to 2%-even if that means jacking up the pace of rate hikes again and putting people out of work.... Americas,Fixed Income,Monetary Policy,The Daily,United States,Will Denyer, Wed, 08 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21825/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21825/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21810/view February's inflation data for the eurozone really should not have come as a surprise. Despite the steep fall in energy price inflation from 18.9% year-on-year to 13.7%, core inflation continued to mount, rising from 5.3% to 5.6%. In a word, eurozone inflation is "sticky".... Equities,Europe,Monetary Policy,Nick Andrews,The Daily, Fri, 03 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21810/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21810/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21481/view Looking further into 2023, our US team of Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian have become increasingly concerned that there could be an impending deflationary bust in the US. Both Louis Gave and Anatole Kaletsky disagree with this stance, although for different reasons.... Americas,Anatole Kaletsky,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Equities,Fixed Income,Louis-Vincent Gave,Monetary Policy,United States,Webinar,Will Denyer, Fri, 10 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21481/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21481/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21471/view For a steer on how opposing macroeconomic forces are likely to play out in Europe's major economies this year, investors could do worse than take a closer look at Sweden. Its central bank meets Thursday after headline CPI inflation hit 12.3% year-on-year in December, and it is a telling canary in Europe's economic coalmine.... Cedric Gemehl,Europe,Fixed Income,Monetary Policy,Scandinavia,The Daily, Wed, 08 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21471/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21471/view#article-comment