https://gavekal.com/feeds.cfm Gavekal en-us Wed, 10 Jun 2026 12:37:13 +0800 Wed, 10 Jun 2026 12:37:13 +0800 https://gavekal.com/feeds.cfm support@gavekal.com (Gavekal) support@gavekal.com (Gavekal) http://web.gavekal.com/node/27343/view For more than two decades, a hidden battle has raged inside China's bureaucracy over how to use the profits earned by state-owned enterprises. That battle has long gone in favor of the SOEs, who have been able to retain most profits for their own use. But as Andrew explains in this piece, in 2025 the tide turned, and the government extracted significantly more money from SOEs than ever before.... Andrew Batson,China,China,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics, Wed, 01 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27343/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27343/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/27236/view Already under fire from anti-corruption investigators and the anti-involution campaign, local officials must this year go through a high-pressure assessment process linked to a regular personnel reshuffle. Top leader Xi Jinping is using this moment to reinforce his message that local officials need to heed central dictates and stop chasing GDP growth-creating a political climate that strongly favors structural adjustment over short-term growth.... Andrew Batson,China,China,Christopher Beddor,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics,Tilly Zhang, Wed, 11 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27236/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27236/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26191/view China's anti-corruption campaign has been in high gear for more than a year, since investigations abruptly surged in mid-2024. Christopher argues that the economic damage from the stepped-up campaign is becoming more visible-but new investigations hit a fresh high in Q2, and the central leadership has given no hint it wants to dial back the campaign to previous levels.... China,China,Christopher Beddor,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics, Wed, 13 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26191/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26191/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26034/view Speculation about the health and hold on power of China's top leader Xi Jinping is nothing new, but the latest rumors seem especially persistent. Is there any concrete public evidence to suggest that Xi might be losing his grip on power? Christopher argues that on close inspection, the existing evidence largely crumbles.... China,China,Christopher Beddor,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics, Wed, 16 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26034/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26034/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25996/view Last week, top leader Xi Jinping chaired a meeting of one of his most important policymaking bodies: the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs. Its prolonged absence from public view had fueled speculation that something is afoot in elite policymaking circles. Christopher argues that there is: the commissions dealing with economic policy are holding fewer public meetings and providing fewer details on their decisions, as they are no longer as politically useful.... China,China,Christopher Beddor,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics, Tue, 08 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25996/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25996/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25080/view Top leader Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign is going stronger than ever, with the number of disciplined officials surging to a record last year. Xiaoxi and Christopher argue that while Xi is promising bureaucrats they will not be punished for honest mistakes, there is a risk that the probes lead officials to put off making decisions, in turn hampering support for growth this year.... China,China,Christopher Beddor,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics,Real Estate,Xiaoxi Zhang, Mon, 10 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25080/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25080/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24109/view China's Communist Party is gearing up to hold its Third Plenum later this month, an event where top leader Xi Jinping will have a platform to articulate and possibly revise his vision for the economy. With domestic consumers in the doldrums, and trade tensions escalating, is a course correction for China coming? In this webinar our team of China experts explained what to expect, and not to expect, from this high-level conclave.... Andrew Batson,China,China,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics,Thomas Gatley,Tilly Zhang, Fri, 12 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24109/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24109/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23676/view Like the dog that failed to bark in the night, the most interesting development in China's economy this year is what hasn't happened: a substantial stimulus. What's the real reason for the government's cautious approach? Andrew considers a few possible reasons and lays out the implications for macro policy going forward.... Andrew Batson,China,China,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics, Wed, 17 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23676/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23676/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23497/view The first week of March saw China's government present its economic policy targets and fiscal plans for the year ahead. In this video interview, Christopher peers through the official fog to assess the degree of policy support on offer for China's economy and discusses how this affects the growth outlook.... China,China,Christopher Beddor,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics, Fri, 08 Mar 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23497/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23497/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23203/view Gavekal's senior partners convened for a roundtable discussion addressing the big themes they see impacting the global economy in the coming year and therefore driving financial markets.... Americas,Anatole Kaletsky,Asia,Charles Gave,China,China,Currencies,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics, Thu, 11 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23203/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23203/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23119/view In last week's seminar in Beijing, Louis-Vincent Gave presented his latest view on global strategy. Arthur Kroeber joined remotely to present an update on the US-China relationship and geopolitical risks. Wei He, Rosealea Yao and Ernan Cui from the Dragonomics team presented the latest developments, and Andrew Batson hosted the panel for a Q&A session.... Andrew Batson,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Ernan Cui,Fixed Income,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,Real Estate,Trade,Wei He, Thu, 14 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23119/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23119/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22418/view So far so good: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen discussed key issues with senior Chinese economic officials last weekend and discussions were apparently cordial and professional in tone. Yellen's visit-along with the recent embrace of the "derisking, not decoupling" catch-phrase-suggests that the US is starting to place some realistic limits on its efforts to constrain China.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Fixed Income,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics,Trade,United States, Wed, 12 Jul 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22418/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22418/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22294/view After three years of Covid-induced inertia, Beijing is fashioning a strategy to counter Washington's containment policy. This matters for investors because it is influencing corporate supply chain decisions and changing the risk calculus in different regions. Tom Miller has specialized in understanding China's relationships with non-OECD nations and in this webinar explains how China's strategy is likely to play out.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Fixed Income,Multimedia,Politics,Politics,Politics,Southeast Asia,Tom Miller,United States, Fri, 16 Jun 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22294/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22294/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22137/view Turkey and Thailand go to the polls on May 14. Both countries have seen their share of authoritarian policymaking and populist democratic politics. In yesterday's webinar, Udith Sikand and Vincent Tsui assessed each economy's prospects and sought to draw some common lessons.... Americas,Asia,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Multimedia,Politics,Politics,Politics,Udith Sikand,Vincent Tsui, Fri, 12 May 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22137/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22137/view#article-comment