https://gavekal.com/feeds.cfm Gavekal en-us Wed, 10 Jun 2026 12:37:20 +0800 Wed, 10 Jun 2026 12:37:20 +0800 https://gavekal.com/feeds.cfm support@gavekal.com (Gavekal) support@gavekal.com (Gavekal) http://web.gavekal.com/node/26746/view Europe's economy has been hit by a series of external shocks since emerging from Covid lockdowns but seems to be finding a new dynamic through a strengthening domestic investment cycle. In this webinar, Cedric and August explore what this means for growth, inflation and monetary policy. They also outline how this informs their views on the euro and eurozone bonds and equities.... August Gudmundsson,Cedric Gemehl,Currencies,Eastern Europe,Economy,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,France,Germany,Ideas,Italy,Scandinavia,Spain, Thu, 27 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26746/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26746/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26014/view So far in 2025, the US economy has defied all the worst-case forecasts of looming stagflation. In this Gavekal webinar, US economists Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian assess the strength and depth of this apparent Goldilocks dynamic, consider the impact of the newly passed Big Beautiful Bill on the US budget, and discuss the implications for financial markets. Gavekal head of research Arthur Kroeber offers updates on the tariff war latest.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Tan Kai Xian,United States,Will Denyer, Fri, 11 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26014/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26014/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25570/view A week of tariff chaos has left the US and China locked in an all-out trade war, with tariffs in both directions now over 100%. The two sides have dug in to maximalist positions, which spells bad news for both economies, and for global trade. Arthur Kroeber, Andrew Batson and Thomas Gatley discuss the economic, political and financial dimensions of this unprecedented crisis.... Americas,Andrew Batson,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Geoeconomics,Ideas,Thomas Gatley,Trade,United States, Fri, 18 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25570/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25570/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25394/view As the US-China trade conflict has escalated uncontrollably, Christopher Beddor looks at the impact on China's domestic economy, examines the steps that Beijing can take to support growth in the face of the export-sector shock, and assesses the probability of their success.... China,China,Christopher Beddor,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Geoeconomics,Ideas, Thu, 10 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25394/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25394/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25142/view Technological optimism seems to be doing what macroeconomic policy could not: change foreign investors' minds about China. At the same time the nascent rebound in the property market is at risk of stalling out amid a policy vacuum. And signals of greater comity between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have not prevented the escalation of US tariffs on China. In this webinar, our China team assesses the conflicting signals for the outlook for 2025.... Andrew Batson,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Real Estate,Thomas Gatley,Tilly Zhang,Xiaoxi Zhang, Fri, 21 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25142/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25142/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24445/view The summer's hopes for a course correction in China have come and gone. Growth remains uninspiring but the government is sticking to its formula of conservative macro policy and aggressive industrial policy. Markets have judged this harshly, with domestic equities and bond yields testing new lows. In this webinar, our China team will assess the current economic trajectory and policy choices, and what they mean for markets and global growth.... Andrew Batson,China,China,Economy,Ernan Cui,Ideas,Thomas Gatley,Xiaoxi Zhang, Fri, 20 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24445/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24445/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24109/view China's Communist Party is gearing up to hold its Third Plenum later this month, an event where top leader Xi Jinping will have a platform to articulate and possibly revise his vision for the economy. With domestic consumers in the doldrums, and trade tensions escalating, is a course correction for China coming? In this webinar our team of China experts explained what to expect, and not to expect, from this high-level conclave.... Andrew Batson,China,China,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics,Thomas Gatley,Tilly Zhang, Fri, 12 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24109/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24109/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24048/view China's economy is not cratering, but it is definitely running at well below potential, and the government seems reluctant to do what it takes to get it up to full speed again. In the run-up to July's economic-oriented Third Plenum meeting, Arthur and Andrew discuss why Beijing continues to focus on technological upgrading rather than economic growth, whether the long-suffering property sector has hit an inflection point, and the risks to exports from rising protectionism.... Andrew Batson,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Real Estate, Fri, 28 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24048/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24048/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23975/view Indian prime minister Narendra Modi will get a third consecutive term in office, but his policy agenda is set to be constrained by the pressures of running a coalition government. Investors are worried that a hitherto pro-business government will become more captive to labor interests.... Asia,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,India,Tom Miller,Udith Sikand, Thu, 13 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23975/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23975/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23897/view After a worrying rebound in the first quarter, US inflation cooled off a little in April, rekindling hopes of interest rate cuts later this year. Are those hopes well placed? And what does it mean for markets? Meanwhile, the opinion polls suggest that Donald Trump may prevail in November's election. Chief US Economist Will Denyer and US Analyst Tan Kai Xian address all these issues and more.... Americas,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Tan Kai Xian,United States,Will Denyer, Fri, 31 May 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23897/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23897/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23620/view This webinar examines the probable extent of anti-China protectionism around the world, assesses the consequences for China's manufacturing industries and growth outlook, and gauges the risk to other economies of Chinese retaliation.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Macro,Southeast Asia,Thomas Gatley,Tom Miller,Trade,United States, Thu, 04 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23620/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23620/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23497/view The first week of March saw China's government present its economic policy targets and fiscal plans for the year ahead. In this video interview, Christopher peers through the official fog to assess the degree of policy support on offer for China's economy and discusses how this affects the growth outlook.... China,China,Christopher Beddor,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Politics,Politics,Politics, Fri, 08 Mar 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23497/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23497/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23462/view China's disappointing economic growth over the past year has led many to conclude that it is heading into the same deflationary trap that swallowed Japan in the 1990s. In this video, Arthur discusses the comparison and China's growth outlook, as well as the government's new policy priorities and geopolitical risks ahead.... Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Real Estate, Thu, 29 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23462/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23462/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23119/view In last week's seminar in Beijing, Louis-Vincent Gave presented his latest view on global strategy. Arthur Kroeber joined remotely to present an update on the US-China relationship and geopolitical risks. Wei He, Rosealea Yao and Ernan Cui from the Dragonomics team presented the latest developments, and Andrew Batson hosted the panel for a Q&A session.... Andrew Batson,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Ernan Cui,Fixed Income,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,Real Estate,Trade,Wei He, Thu, 14 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23119/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23119/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22942/view Chinese stocks have perked up since late October, making modest gains after two important developments helped ease some long-standing worries among investors. For this moment of cautious optimism to turn into a full-fledged rally, two more catalysts are necessary: confirmation that a solid reflationary impulse is actually taking hold in the domestic economy, and confirmation that US bond yields and the US dollar have peaked.... China,China,Economy,Equities,Ideas,Thomas Gatley, Tue, 07 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22942/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22942/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22933/view China's economic growth momentum stabilized in the third quarter, but it remains fragile and at a weak level. In this video, Christopher Beddor discusses the Dragonomics team's latest quarterly macro chartbook, including the outlook for growth, the current state of the property market and the recent policy shift towards greater fiscal support.... China,China,Christopher Beddor,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas, Fri, 03 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22933/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22933/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22809/view After a nasty deflationary shock in Q2 as the property crisis worsened, China's economy stabilized somewhat in Q3. The base case is that the government will be satisfied with this positive development. But in this piece the Dragonomics team evaluates some of the potential options available if the government does decide to think outside the box.... Andrew Batson,China,China,Economy,Equities,Ernan Cui,Fixed Income,Ideas,Real Estate,Wei He, Tue, 10 Oct 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22809/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22809/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22762/view After a nasty deflationary shock, China's macro data have started to turn around at the margin. Yet markets remain unconvinced, with equities headed down and the currency still under pressure. Our China macro and markets experts will tackle these and other urgent questions about the outlook.... Andrew Batson,China,China,Economy,Multimedia,Thomas Gatley,Wei He, Fri, 29 Sep 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22762/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22762/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22728/view After August's panic about a possible economic implosion in China has died down, Christopher Beddor offers a sober assessment of the current outlook. Growth momentum appears to be stabilizing, and the authorities are easing real estate market policy. However, the financial weakness of developers continues to put strains on less visible parts of the financial sector.... China,China,Christopher Beddor,Economy,Multimedia, Fri, 22 Sep 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22728/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22728/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22618/view In the last couple of weeks China's economy has catapulted into global headlines, with legions of commentators warning of a potential financial and economic meltdown In this report, the Gavekal Dragonomics team cut through the hyperbole, tying together their recent research into a Q&A addressing the key questions about China's economic trajectory.... China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Dragonomics Team,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Real Estate, Thu, 24 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22618/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22618/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22366/view China's reopening recovery started strong early this year, but has slowed substantially since April. While consumption is still mostly improving, weakness in the export and property sectors is dragging on growth. As a result, policymakers are now returning to stimulus.... China,China,China Update,Commodities,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Dragonomics Team,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Macro,Real Estate, Mon, 03 Jul 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22366/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22366/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22357/view China's growth momentum has visibly faltered in recent weeks and the government is now changing course, rolling out more stimulus in hopes of rescuing the recovery. But does the government have the tools to reverse the downturn in property and the disappointments in consumer demand?... Andrew Batson,China,China,Commodities,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Real Estate,Wei He, Fri, 30 Jun 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22357/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22357/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22230/view Europe analysts Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews assess the eurozone's economic outlook and ask what the main drivers of European asset market performance over the second half of 2023 will be.... Cedric Gemehl,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Multimedia,Nick Andrews, Fri, 02 Jun 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22230/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22230/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22208/view China's second Covid wave has arrived more or less schedule, without producing lockdowns or any indeed much public discussion at all. Like follow-on waves elsewhere in the world, the moderate rise in Covid cases is not likely to result in big disruptions to consumer behavior or economic activity.... China,China,Christopher Beddor,Economy,Equities,Ideas, Mon, 29 May 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22208/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22208/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22137/view Turkey and Thailand go to the polls on May 14. Both countries have seen their share of authoritarian policymaking and populist democratic politics. In yesterday's webinar, Udith Sikand and Vincent Tsui assessed each economy's prospects and sought to draw some common lessons.... Americas,Asia,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Multimedia,Politics,Politics,Politics,Udith Sikand,Vincent Tsui, Fri, 12 May 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22137/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22137/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22068/view China's economic rebound is well under way, with GDP growth in the first quarter beating expectations on the back of strengthening household consumption and property sales. But many still have doubts about the strength of the recovery. Thomas Gatley and Wei He assess what the data tell us about the recovery so far, as well as the outlook for economic growth and asset markets.... Americas,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Macro,Multimedia,Thomas Gatley,Wei He, Fri, 28 Apr 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22068/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22068/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21910/view Hoping to turn the page on a traumatic 2022, China's government has unveiled a new agenda to be carried out by fresh faces in 2023. In this webinar our China team discusses the outlook for the economy, the political risks and the drivers for markets.... China,China,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Multimedia,Thomas Gatley,Wei He, Fri, 24 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21910/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21910/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21410/view China's remarkable reversal of Covid policies in late 2022 has set the stage for an equally unusual economic recovery in 2023. It's early days yet, but consumer activity is quickly normalizing, and this consumption-led rebound will gather strength in coming months. Our latest quarterly chartbook examines the prospects and market implications of this recovery.... Chartbooks,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Dragonomics Team,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Real Estate, Fri, 27 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21410/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21410/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21385/view China continues to reel from a massive wave of Covid infections, but cases may have already peaked in most places. In this webinar our China team discussed the pace of reopening and its market implications. Ernan Cui provided the latest updates on the Covid situation, and Thomas Gatley assessed how far the reopening rally has to run.... China,China,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Ernan Cui,Fixed Income,Ideas,Thomas Gatley, Fri, 20 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21385/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21385/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21331/view China's reopening from Covid containment is well under way, and the country is suffering a massive wave of infections. While normal life is beginning to resume, many consumers remain cautious, so a full rebound in confidence will take time. But by Chinese New Year the economic recovery should begin in earnest.... Chartbooks,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Dragonomics Team,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Real Estate, Thu, 05 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21331/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21331/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21325/view China's chaotic reopening has resulted in a public health mess that could go on for months. That will not derail a robust economic recovery which will be boosted by growth-supporting government policies, especially in the property market. Wei and Thomas outline what the recovery is likely to look like, and which assets will benefit the most.... China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Economy,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Real Estate,Thomas Gatley,Wei He, Wed, 04 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21325/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21325/view#article-comment