https://gavekal.com/feeds.cfm Gavekal en-us Wed, 10 Jun 2026 12:40:46 +0800 Wed, 10 Jun 2026 12:40:46 +0800 https://gavekal.com/feeds.cfm support@gavekal.com (Gavekal) support@gavekal.com (Gavekal) http://web.gavekal.com/node/27684/view As energy import costs soar, macro stress is mounting in India. A widening current-account deficit, weakening capital inflows and a falling rupee are putting pressure on the economy just as rising inflation limits policymakers' room to respond. Tom and Udith assess whether this cyclical shock could evolve into a more structural challenge for India's growth story.... Asia,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,India,Tom Miller,Udith Sikand, Wed, 03 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27684/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27684/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/27503/view The European Central Bank held interest rates steady on Thursday, but said that risks to inflation and growth stemming from the Iran war had "intensified". As energy prices continue to grind higher, the policy bias is being tilted toward higher rates. The near-term inflationary impulse stems almost entirely from energy effects, argues August.... August Gudmundsson,Eastern Europe,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,France,Germany,Italy,Scandinavia,Spain,The Daily, Fri, 01 May 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27503/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27503/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/27437/view The effects of the Iran war are being felt by national power systems globally, but the United States is relatively insulated due to its abundant domestic sources of hydrocarbons. There are, however, winners and losers from this energy shock within the US power system, says Kai Xian. In this video interview he outlines who is up and who is down.... Americas,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Tan Kai Xian,United States,Video, Fri, 17 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27437/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27437/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/27428/view The plight of European industry over the past four years has reinforced the centrality of energy to modern economies. The tightening of energy supplies after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine placed Europe's industrial complex under acute strain, just as Chinese firms were becoming formidable. With energy prices again high due to the Iran war, August and Cedric assess Europe's vulnerabilities across its industrial sectors.... August Gudmundsson,Cedric Gemehl,Commodities and Energy,Eastern Europe,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Europe,France,Germany,Ideas,Italy,Spain, Thu, 16 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27428/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27428/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/27321/view Over the last week, voters have cautiously backed centrist politicians in a series of European elections. The process of political fragmentation has hardly reversed in Europe, but many voters are seeking practical answers to difficult questions at a time when Europe feels besieged in both strategic and economic terms. In this interview, Cedric discusses what this more realistic mood means for European Union integration.... Cedric Gemehl,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Video, Thu, 26 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27321/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27321/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/27287/view As hydrocarbon prices surge amid tit-for-tat attacks against energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, European households look exposed. Last week, we argued that this energy crisis was less threatening than the one Europe faced after Russia invaded Ukraine. Even so, the impact will depend on the size and duration of the disruption as well as the response of labor markets, fiscal policy and household saving rates.... August Gudmundsson,Cedric Gemehl,Eastern Europe,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,Fixed Income,France,Germany,Italy,Scandinavia,Spain,Switzerland,The Daily, Fri, 20 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27287/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27287/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/27255/view Europe remains a large net importer of energy, so higher global energy prices typically translate into higher inflation and weaker growth. The question for investors is whether the latest shock will prove as severe as Europe's 2022 energy crisis. Cedric argues that the Old Continent will probably take a softer punch this time around, and analyzes the impact on its assets.... Cedric Gemehl,Commodities and Energy,Eastern Europe,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,France,Germany,Italy,Scandinavia,Spain,The Daily, Fri, 13 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27255/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27255/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/27229/view Since the US and Israel launched decapitation strikes against Iran's leadership and oil and gas infrastructure has been targets of attacks, global markets have been rocked by uncertainty over how long Middle East energy supplies will be disrupted. Our panel assess the latest geopolitical situation and aims to map a path on what comes next for markets.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,Asia,Australia,Brazil,Canada,Charles Gave,China,China,Eastern Europe,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,France,Germany,Hong Kong,India,Italy,Japan,Korea,Louis-Vincent Gave,Macao,Other Latin America,Russia,Scandinavia,Southeast Asia,Spain,Switzerland,Taiwan,United Kingdom,United States,Webinar, Tue, 10 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27229/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27229/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/27225/view War is punishing for portfolios, especially when it disrupts the flow of oil and gas. War can also affect markets through higher government borrowing, rising inflation, differing monetary policy responses and changes in the economic outlook of affected regions. The effect of these forces may explain why some hedges and safe havens have underperformed during the first week of the US-led war against Iran, says Will.... Americas,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Ideas,United States,Will Denyer, Mon, 09 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27225/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27225/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/27206/view Reassured by the stabilization of European and US markets, Asian equities rallied Thursday following the previous day's bruising falls. The notable laggard was India, whose equity market already looked expensive compared to markets elsewhere in Asia. Now, this latest round of underperformance reflects India's disproportionately high vulnerability to a protracted crisis in the Middle East.... Asia,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,India,The Daily,Tom Holland,Udith Sikand, Thu, 05 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27206/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27206/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/27190/view Donald Trump said late Monday that the US bombing campaign against Iran could last "four to five weeks. But we have capability to go far longer than that." This means businesses and investors must contemplate the effect on energy markets if oil and liquefied natural gas traffic through the Straits of Hormuz remains suspended for a month or more. The impact will be mixed, but for some energy importers, the picture is ugly.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,The Daily,Tom Holland,United States, Tue, 03 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27190/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27190/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/27187/view So far this year, all the ingredients seemed to be in place for an epic inflationary boom. Now, suddenly the events in the Persian Gulf raise the threat of a meaningful surge in energy prices and a consequent shift from inflationary boom to inflationary bust. Louis assesses what this means for asset allocators.... Americas,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Louis-Vincent Gave,The Daily,United States, Mon, 02 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27187/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27187/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/27121/view Charles was greatly intrigued by a chart Cedric posted in the comment section of a Daily last week, showing how earnings expectations for European and Chinese industrial companies have decoupled over the last three years in favor of Europe. In this Daily Charles focuses on the investment needed to produce the energy required to power future economic activity in each region. Here, the strategies followed by China and Europe are completely different.... Charles Gave,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,Germany,The Daily, Wed, 18 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27121/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27121/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/27118/view Charles recently published a note on long-term asset allocation whose main focus was to hedge not against time risk, such as interest rate levels or movements, but against the risk of a sustained shift in energy prices. Anatole likes the general thrust of Charles's argument but wonders if unloved renewables offer a better way of actioning the strategy than conventional energy names.... Americas,Anatole Kaletsky,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Ideas,United States, Tue, 17 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/27118/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/27118/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26984/view After Europe's benchmark price for natural gas spiked by 40% between the first and third weeks of January, Cedric Gemehl examines the state of the continent's gas stores, asks where European countries can source additional imports, and considers the longer term questions raised by Europe's energy insecurity.... Cedric Gemehl,Commodities and Energy,Eastern Europe,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,France,Germany,Italy,Scandinavia,Spain,Switzerland,United Kingdom,Video, Thu, 22 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26984/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26984/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26734/view Even in the era of AI mega-capex, US$80bn is a lot of money. This is the sum the US government is proposing to pour into the construction of new Westinghouse nuclear reactors as part of a broader US$400bn drive to upgrade US energy infrastructure to meet future demand for electricity. Such lavish state-backed investment plans can be a two-edged sword for investors.... Americas,Asia,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Japan,Korea,Tan Kai Xian,The Daily,United States, Tue, 25 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26734/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26734/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26630/view Rising electricity demand from data centers-and the resulting strain on supply and prices-has become a dominant theme in US energy markets. Expanding US power supply capacity is essential to sustain economic growth. But Kai Xian reckons President Donald Trump's policies are likely to add further upward pressure on US end-user electricity and gas prices.... Americas,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Tan Kai Xian,The Daily,United States, Thu, 06 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26630/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26630/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26476/view Over the years, Charles has developed a selection of tools to help analyze the US economy. Today, a lot of these are signaling that the US might be entering an inflationary boom. In this Daily, he focuses on three of these indicators.... Americas,Asia,Charles Gave,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,The Daily,United States, Thu, 09 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26476/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26476/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26430/view Given the importance of energy prices to our modern economies, you might think that driving them lower would be the top priority of any elected official taking office, says Louis. In fact, the opposite has happened across most of the Western world in recent decades. The effects of this neglect is now being felt at a macro level.... Americas,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave,United States, Tue, 30 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26430/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26430/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26350/view In today's issue we handicap the odds that Donald Trump and Xi Jinping actually accomplish anything when they meet later this fall; assess what China might be up to by agreeing to advance discussions on a big new gas pipeline from Russia; and explain the limits of India's sudden efforts to mend its economic relationship with Beijing.... Arthur Kroeber,Asia,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Geoeconomics,Ideas,Southeast Asia,Tom Holland,Tom Miller,Trade, Mon, 15 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26350/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26350/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26130/view Arthur Kroeber unpacks Donald Trump's flurry of trade deals, which culminated in the executive orders signed late Thursday. Arthur and Tom Holland explain why Trump's bid for fossil-fuel "energy dominance" is helping China win the more important contest for electricity dominance. And Tom finds that China's new hydro mega-project in the Himalayas probably will not reduce India's water supply by much, although it will do nothing to warm relations between the two Asian powers.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,Asia,China,China,Energy,Energy,Energy,Geoeconomics,Ideas,India,Tom Holland,Trade,United States, Fri, 01 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26130/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26130/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26085/view Six months into Donald Trump's second term, the administration's plans for US energy dominance are not going as intended as US consumers face higher prices for gasoline, natural gas and electricity. This is not especially surprising. Moreover, the trajectory of energy policy under the second Trump administration will spell trouble in years to come for the competitive position of the US economy.... Americas,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,The Daily,Tom Holland,United States, Fri, 25 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26085/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26085/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26057/view As US lawmakers aim to fast-track legislation aimed at encouraging the development of privately issued cryptocurrencies, Arthur Kroeber assesses the probability that digital currencies will upend the established US-dollar-based international financial system. Separately, Tom Holland examines the likely effectiveness of US secondary tariffs aimed at curbing Russia's energy exports, and Tom Miller takes the temperature of the political waters across the Taiwan strait.... Americas,Arthur Kroeber,China,China,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,Geoeconomics,Ideas,Russia,Tom Holland,Tom Miller,Trade,United States, Fri, 18 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26057/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26057/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/26017/view When Donald Trump announced his liberation day tariffs on April 2, international oil and gas prices fell steeply on fears for global economic activity. On Monday, Trump set out a new raft of liberation-day-lite tariffs to come into effect on August 1. Yet over the subsequent days, oil and gas prices rose, not fell. Tom unpicks what the market reaction signals about oil prices through the rest of 2025 and into next year.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,The Daily,Tom Holland,United States, Fri, 11 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/26017/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/26017/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25924/view After Iran's pre-warned missile attack against the main US military base in Qatar and Donald Trump's announcement of a ceasefire spurred a full collapse in the oil price back to its pre-conflict level. What comes next in this Middle East is far from certain, and Asian economies still have reason to fear a blockade of the Persian Gulf, even if they treat it as a tail risk, rather than a base case.... Asia,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,India,Southeast Asia,The Daily,Trade,Udith Sikand, Tue, 24 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25924/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25924/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25145/view It's hard to shake the impression that there is a hidden subtext to the talks about Ukraine between the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia, the world's three biggest oil producers. Are they willing and able to strike a tripartite deal on energy? And if so, what would it mean for prices? To find the answer, Tom examines each government's principal objectives.... Americas,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,Russia,The Daily,Tom Holland,United States, Fri, 21 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25145/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25145/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25116/view Several countries running big trade surpluses with the US are reportedly looking to buy more US liquefied natural gas in an attempt to ward off potential US tariffs. Tom examines whether the US will have the capacity to meet all their demand, how will this affect the structure of global energy markets, and what it will do to prices.... Americas,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,The Daily,Tom Holland,Trade,United States, Mon, 17 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25116/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25116/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/25037/view At times of great uncertainty, it can help to step back from the daily swings and roundabouts to remind yourself what you know for sure, and what this knowledge means for the future. At this time of great uncertainty in energy markets, what we can say for sure is that the world will continue to rely on natural gas as a vital source of energy for decades to come.... Americas,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,The Daily,Tom Holland,United Kingdom,United States, Fri, 31 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/25037/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/25037/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24564/view The Trump trades are back with a vengeance. As Donald Trump's poll ratings have risen in recent days, some markets have registered outsized gains, others have suffered abrupt falls. In this paper, Louis examines six affected markets, from US tech stocks and financials, through energy and China, to Mexico and Argentina, to assess whether the moves make sense.... Americas,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Fixed Income,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave,United States, Wed, 16 Oct 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24564/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24564/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24517/view Looking across the macro landscape, Louis and Anatole observe a number of strongly reflationary factors and booming markets. Yet complacency never pays off for investors. So amid the escalating war in the Middle East and the prospect of further trade friction between China and the West, two of Gavekal's many wise men discuss how investors can protect their portfolios from the risks to the current upbeat sentiment.... Americas,Anatole Kaletsky,Asia,China,China,Conversation,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,Louis-Vincent Gave,Macro,United States, Fri, 04 Oct 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24517/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24517/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24408/view Following the -20% collapse in oil prices over the last two months, long-time energy bull Louis weighs the different reasons advanced for the slide-both cyclical and structural-considers how they are likely to play out over the coming months and years, and examines what it will all mean for investors.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave,United States, Thu, 12 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24408/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24408/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24401/view In the last two months, oil prices have slumped -20%, with the international Brent crude benchmark falling to a shade above US$70/bbl and energy names underperforming broader US equity indexes. Louis examines the reasons behind the recent slide and assesses the near and long-term supply-demand pictures in energy markets.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Louis-Vincent Gave,United States,Video, Wed, 11 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24401/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24401/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24320/view During Wednesday's trading, the price of the front-month WTI crude oil future fell -3% to its lowest since early January. Although the price ticked up a few cents before the end of US hours, it remained below US$72/bbl, down from more than US$80/bbl just over a week earlier. The perversity comes because it was far easier to identify reasons why this fall did not happen than convincing reasons why it did.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,The Daily,Tom Holland, Thu, 22 Aug 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24320/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24320/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24249/view Habitual readers will be familiar with the Gavekal notion that the economy is simply energy transformed. Charles looks at the ratio of the S&P 500 to the price of oil and gold, as well as the Shiller P/E, and finds the stock market is expecting a significant decline in the price of oil. This may well come to pass but in the event it doesn't, Charles has some asset recommendations too.... Americas,Charles Gave,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Fixed Income,The Daily,United States, Thu, 15 Aug 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24249/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24249/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24126/view Anatole and Louis discuss what a likely Trump/Vance administration might do in the areas of US dollar and industrial policy, big tech, China, the war in Ukraine and energy. The result would be a significant transformation of the investment landscape in the US and around the world, but so far markets appear to be ignoring this possibility.... Americas,Anatole Kaletsky,Asia,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Conversation,Currencies,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Louis-Vincent Gave,United States, Wed, 17 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24126/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24126/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24124/view Over the last three months, the S&P energy index has underperformed the S&P technology index by -25pp. A share price is a stream of earnings, discounted by an interest rate, onto which investors tack a risk premium. There are few reasons to think energy companies will face an earnings collapse, or be affected by interest rates. So as energy stocks derate, the most likely culprit seems to be the risk premium linked to global investors' outlook.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,Louis-Vincent Gave,The Daily,United States, Tue, 16 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24124/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24124/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/24034/view The electrification trend in the US economy means that electricity is accounting for a growing share of total energy consumption. KX reckons this is a multi-year development, but there are limited useful ways for investors to play it. In this interview, he outlines the best options.... Americas,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Tan Kai Xian,United States,Video, Wed, 26 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/24034/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/24034/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23931/view Charles has long argued that the economy is simply energy transformed. It follows that if the economy can transform energy profitably, the stock market will rise relative to the price of energy. Conversely, if energy cannot be transformed at a profit, equities will fall in relative terms. In this paper, Charles builds on this observation to draw some important conclusions for investors' current exposure.... Americas,Asia,Charles Gave,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Ideas,United States, Thu, 06 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23931/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23931/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23772/view The next Opec+ meeting is still more than three weeks away on June 1st, but already the preparatory dance has begun. At the end of June, "voluntary" Opec+ oil production cuts of some 2.2mn barrels per day are due to expire. The first job for the export cartels' ministers when they meet in Vienna will be to decide whether or not to roll over these reductions until the end of the year.... Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,The Daily,Tom Holland, Wed, 08 May 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23772/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23772/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23712/view The US imposed sanctions on Iran's oil exports in 2018, after Donald Trump withdrew from the six-power Iran nuclear deal negotiated under Barack Obama. However, under Biden enforcement has been relatively lax. Tom examines the new US sanctions regime on Iranian oil and the impact on the oil market.... Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,The Daily,Tom Holland, Thu, 25 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23712/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23712/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23663/view The one thing Gavekal's founding partners have agreed on since Russia's invasion of Ukraine is that the world has now moved into an inflationary boom. And since the war, the gold price has risen by a quarter and long-dated US treasuries have fallen by a third. Will the events of the weekend change any of this?... Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Louis-Vincent Gave,The Daily, Mon, 15 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23663/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23663/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23652/view With the broad commodity complex up some 13% year-to-date, commodities are closing in on their 2022 highs. However, Louis argues there is more to this rally than heightened geopolitical risks, which were responsible for driving the 2022 run-up.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Commodities,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave, Thu, 11 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23652/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23652/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23614/view With the Opec+ cartel reiterating on Wednesday that it will maintain its current production targets through June, prevailing market sentiment has reversed sharply since its mid-December trough. But just as the oil market was excessively bearish going into the end of 2023, is sentiment now overly bullish? How high is the oil price really likely to go?... Americas,Asia,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,The Daily,Tom Holland, Thu, 04 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23614/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23614/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23566/view Over the last two decades, the share of nuclear power in the US energy mix has flatlined. Yet with the US signed up to carbon emission reduction targets and power-hungry tech firms looking for clean energy sources to power their vast server farms, there is a renewed impetus to develop modern nuclear options.... Americas,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Tan Kai Xian,United States,Video, Fri, 22 Mar 2024 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23566/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23566/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23109/view At their meeting this Thursday, European Central Bank policymakers are likely to push back against market expectations for a rapid rate cut cycle beginning as early as March 2024. At first glance, it might seem the market is right to price in 1.25pp of rate cuts by September. But there is less to eurozone disinflation than meets the eye.... Cedric Gemehl,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,Fixed Income,France,Germany,Italy,Scandinavia,Spain,The Daily, Tue, 12 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23109/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23109/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23051/view Even as alternative energy stocks have taken a beating this year, the price of uranium has surged. Noting how attitudes towards nuclear power are thawing in North America and Europe, Louis explores how investors can play this evolving theme.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Europe,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave, Wed, 29 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23051/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23051/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/23044/view The Cop28 and Opec+ meetings this Thursday are taking place against a backdrop of a fundamental disagreement between rich-economy energy consumers and developing-world petroleum producers about the long-term outlook for hydrocarbons as an energy source. One of the two sides has got its picture of the world's energy future badly wrong. Which one it is will matter greatly for investors.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,The Daily,Tom Holland,United States, Tue, 28 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/23044/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/23044/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22880/view People from poor countries move in large numbers to rich countries in search of the lifestyles visible to them through social media, generating greater-than-planned-for demand for energy. If you are inclined to worry about man-made climate change, should this really be a development you want to encourage?... Americas,Asia,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,Louis-Vincent Gave,The Daily, Wed, 25 Oct 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22880/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22880/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22846/view While oil prices have traded in a surprisingly tight range over the last week, Europe's natural gas market has been disturbingly volatile. As Europe has moved to secure new gas supplies, it has become more exposed to political and economic factors impacting global energy markets.... Cedric Gemehl,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,The Daily,Trade, Tue, 17 Oct 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22846/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22846/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22804/view Louis looks at how the flare-up of violence in Israel will reinforce some existing trends while wreaking changes elsewhere in the investment environment.... Americas,Asia,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Louis-Vincent Gave,The Daily,United States, Mon, 09 Oct 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22804/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22804/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22696/view Early on Wednesday morning, cruise missiles were launched against a Russian ship repair plant in Sevastopol. Three missiles hit their target and two ships undergoing repairs were reportedly damaged. The provision by Nato-and use by Ukraine-of cruise missiles marks an escalation in the war that begs the question of how Vladimir Putin will respond?... Americas,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,Louis-Vincent Gave,Politics,Politics,Politics,Russia,The Daily,United States, Thu, 14 Sep 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22696/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22696/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22685/view A bull market that fails to rise on good news often signifies the start of a bear market. For the past two months, news on the US economy has been favorable. But consider how the markets have responded to all this great economic news.... Americas,Anatole Kaletsky,Economy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Fixed Income,The Daily,United States, Mon, 11 Sep 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22685/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22685/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22678/view What is the correct collective noun for economists? Perhaps it should be "an altercation." The term seems especially apposite when it comes to oil market economists and analysts.... Asia,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,The Daily,Tom Holland, Fri, 08 Sep 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22678/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22678/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22621/view One effect of the inflation spike of the last two years has been to push up Europe's long-term inflation expectations. Today, the swaps market expects eurozone consumer inflation between mid-2028 and mid-2033 to average 2.63%. That is not only well above the European Central Bank's target of 2%, it is also closely in line with US inflation expectations.... Americas,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Europe,France,Germany,Italy,Nick Andrews,Spain,The Daily,United Kingdom,United States, Fri, 25 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22621/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22621/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22602/view Today, it seems that wherever investors look, the casualties of earlier policy actions are beginning to show up. With bubbles popping all around, Louis looks for safe spaces and antifragile assets, and comes to the conclusion that investors should do more of what has worked for them recently.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,Fixed Income,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave, Mon, 21 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22602/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22602/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22588/view China is the world's single biggest oil importer. How this demand evolves over the coming months will be the main swing factor determining global oil prices. On Wednesday, the head of China's National Energy Administration demanded less transparency in the sector. For investors, this Chinese inclination towards energy opacity is a major problem.... Americas,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,The Daily,Tom Holland,United States, Thu, 17 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22588/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22588/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22196/view I have been very bullish energy for the last couple of years; a trade that worked well in 2022, but which has been a massive disappointment year-to-date in 2023. One of the main reasons to be bullish energy was the widely-held expectation that following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia's oil production would collapse. But as it turned out, Russian oil has continued to flow.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Commodities,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,Louis-Vincent Gave,The Daily,United States, Thu, 25 May 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22196/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22196/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22041/view The Opec+ petroleum exporters' cartel is cutting back its crude production and China's reopening evokes memories of how previous Chinese rebound drove oil demand. But is that the case today? Tom weighs the conflicting forces driving oil demand and supply, and assesses the outlook for prices over the remainder of 2023.... Americas,China,China,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Tom Holland,United States,Video, Fri, 21 Apr 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22041/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22041/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/22039/view Europe's energy crisis is now firmly in the rearview mirror. Perversely, that should be a cause of concern for investors in eurozone equities, who have enjoyed impressive outperformance over the last seven months as the energy price shock has receded. From here on, life will get more difficult.... Economy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Europe,Nick Andrews,The Daily,Trade, Fri, 21 Apr 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/22039/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/22039/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21941/view As US firms operating in key industries get huge subsidies under the sprawling Inflation Reduction Act and Chinese firms consolidate their dominance in sectors like battery technology, European firms feel hemmed in on all sides. In this webinar, our team assesses the options open to Europe and what it all means for the region's longer-term growth outlook.... Cedric Gemehl,Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Nick Andrews,Trade,Webinar, Fri, 31 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21941/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21941/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21937/view Europeans are asking a lot of their green transition plans. Listen to the enthusiasts in Brussels, and the plans will lift GDP growth, generate millions of new jobs and boost the continent's exports. So far, green boosterism has largely suppressed critical analysis of the plans' economic drawbacks.... Energy,Energy,Energy,Environment,Equities,Europe,Nick Andrews,The Daily, Thu, 30 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21937/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21937/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21831/view Faced with natural gas shortages and shortfalls in hydro and nuclear power production, several EU countries extended the operational life of some coal-fired plants, even recommissioning plants previously shut down. But the economics no longer favor coal.... Cedric Gemehl,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,The Daily, Thu, 09 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21831/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21831/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21499/view In recent months, US assets have given back all of the relative outperformance they achieved after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. One explanation is that the US benefit from China's reopening will be small, but there may be other forces at work. Louis assesses four key changes to the investment environment, which do not favor holders of US assets.... Americas,Asia,China,China,Currencies,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Ideas,Louis-Vincent Gave,Russia,United States, Tue, 14 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21499/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21499/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21494/view On Friday, Russia announced that from March it will cut its oil production by 500,000 barrels per day, a consequential amount given that the world consumes 100mn barrels every day. Russia's cut will therefore have to be matched by output increases elsewhere if oil prices are not to surge higher. But who will step up production?... Americas,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Europe,Louis-Vincent Gave,Russia,The Daily,United States, Mon, 13 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21494/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21494/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21414/view Europe has dodged an economic bullet. Worst-case fears of a crippling energy shortage have vanished and investors have revised down the growth and inflation risks they were pricing into European markets. But while this is unambiguously positive for European growth, the implications for eurozone inflation are less straightforward.... Cedric Gemehl,Commodities and Energy,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Ideas,Nick Andrews, Fri, 27 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21414/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21414/view#article-comment http://web.gavekal.com/node/21407/view A mild winter has averted Europe's long-feared energy crisis, and the prospect of a demand boost from China's reopening has raised hopes for growth and lifted European markets. Cedric and Nick review the continent's macro and market conditions and chart a course to navigate the coming quarters.... Commodities and Energy,Currencies,Energy,Energy,Energy,Equities,Europe,Fixed Income,Macro,Research Team,Webinar, Fri, 27 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0800 http://web.gavekal.com/node/21407/view http://web.gavekal.com/node/21407/view#article-comment