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| Five Corners - Asia
| | Please see our latest Five Corners - Asia, in which Gavin points out there is a risk that the recently outperforming ASEAN markets could run out of fuel, quite literally; but luckily, policymakers know this. Will Freeman argues that while VIP gambling revenues are down in Macau, there is a move toward a more diversified business model underway. Cathy argues that Korea is not as cyclical as it once was, for a number of reasons, and valuations should reflect this. Joyce argues that while the current RMB relaxation will not rebalance China’s economy in the absence of other reforms, the timing of it has been fortunate for exporters. And finally, Gavin argues that while policy risk is high in China’s internet space, some of the Chinese companies are on Beijing’s good side and have been showing some rare capacity for innovation in technology and business models. |
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Forum Admin / Will Freeman
7/20/2010 4:05 PM |
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| Five Corners Global, Vol.11, Issue 13
| | Please see our latest Five Corners, in which Anatole looks at the real challenge facing the G20: how to stop private sector cash-hoarding. Francois reviews the "collateral benefits" of Greek reforms, while Charles argues that softness in the US housing market is part and parcel of the global rebalancing. This week we also look at the positive reaction to the UK Budget, and consider volatility as an asset class of its own. |
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
6/28/2010 4:36 PM |
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| Five Corners - Asia, Volume 2, Issue 12
| | Please see our latest Five Corners Asia, in which Joyce explains why Beijing's crackdown on government investment vehicles will not send stimulus investment screeching to a halt, while Will Freeman looks at China's growing interest in investing in Europe. Stephanie focuses on the shifting sands of the corporate funding environment in India, while Gavin takes a look at efforts by Malaysia to lure back both domestic retail and foreign institutional investors. Also this week, Cathy considers why Korea Inc. is winning so many plaudits these days. |
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
6/21/2010 3:11 PM |
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| Five Corners - Vol. 11, Issue 12
| | Please see our latest Five Corners - Global, in which Charles notes that the Euro is no longer obviously overvalued against other major currencies, so the best way to "short" the exchange rate might just be through Asian currencies. Anatole looks at whether the UK will formalize a "tight fiscal/easy monetary" formula, which could encourage other major OECD economies to do the same--one effect this would have is to encourage companies to invest instead of hoarding cash. Also this week, Will Freeman explains why China's export sector will be able to quickly adjust to the latest upward wage pressures. |
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
6/14/2010 8:26 PM |
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| Five Corners - Asia, Vol. 2, Issue 11
| | Please see our latest Five Corners - Asia, in which we look at country risk in terms of the varying approaches to tightening in the region. We also look at the latest supply-side reforms in Taiwan, argue that “landlords” in Hong Kong still have the upper hand in the HK property market, and examine China's introduction of a resource tax in Xinjiang--is this a wake-up call for the nation's monopolistic oil firms? |
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
6/7/2010 10:36 AM |
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| Five Corners - Vol. 11, Issue 9
| | Please see our latest Five Corners - Global, in which Anatole looks at whether the latest Greek bailout will end the EMU crisis--or whether the ECB will have to resort to the "nuclear option" of outright debt monetization to prevent the Euro from imploding. Francois-Xavier returns to the performance of a European portfolio made up of European exporters and long-dated German bunds… and looks at possible options to boost its returns. In a separate piece, Francois-Xavier argues that OECD nations may have to adapt to lower structural growth rates going forward. And finally Steven examines the conundrum of negative US swap spreads. |
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
5/3/2010 10:30 AM |
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| Five Corners - Asia, Vol. 2, Issue 7
| | Please find our latest Five Corners Asia, where Charles looks at the drivers of the Yen/US$ exchange rate, Louis reviews the challenges of fast growing economies and how this relates to China. Daniel argues that Hong Kong may win market shares in the lucrative sector of financing commodity exploration, while Gavin reviews the South Korean housing market. Finally, Stephanie looks at the steps taken to improve flexibility on the Indian labor market. |
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
4/12/2010 4:01 PM |
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| Five Corners - Asia, Vol. 2, Issue 6
| | Please find our latest edition of the Five Corners Asia, in which Dan looks at what could trigger a reversal in the AU$, Joyce and Arthur review the profitability of Chinese SOEs, Louis looks at what is rapidly becoming one of the biggest threats to the Chinese economy, while Stephanie examines the challenges of Indian infrastructure. Finally, Gavin reviews the ongoing Thai political drama. |
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
3/28/2010 10:52 PM |
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| Five Corners Global - Vol. 11, Issue 2
| | Please find our latest Five Corners, in which Charles look at the short position against the global fiat monetary system and reviews the relationship between the Swiss Franc and European sovereign spreads. In his first GaveKal missive, Francois argues that productivity may come back faster than expected in Europe. Steve, meanwhile, highlights that we have reached an important monetary inflection point in the US and that the risk reflation trade may be living on borrowed time. Finally, Dan looks at the recent strength of the Canadian dollar. |
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
1/24/2010 8:02 PM |
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| Five Corners Global - Vol. 10, Issue 25
| | Please see our latest Five Corners - Global, in which we look at how troubles in the Middle East may change the investment environment in 2010, leading to a rotation away from “price monetizers”. Charles notes that investors from all sides of the philosophical spectrum have managed to enjoy gains this year--but that such a trend is unlikely to persist much longer. Arthur and Louis consider China's likely new growth drivers as exports lose steam, and the current demographic sweet spot fades away. And finally, Gavin writes about rising sovereign debt fears, and the impact for Europe and the Euro. |
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
12/14/2009 5:05 PM |
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| Five Corners - Asia, Vol. 1, Issue 15
| | Please see our latest Five Corners - Asia, in which we look at the role China is playing in the recent surge in lumber prices, consider where Hong Kong's already buoyant asset market might go if credit creation is added to the equation, and note that Beijing appears to be getting increasingly nervous about speculative capital inflows. In this edition we also assess the impact of the Australian rate hikes on consumption, consider whether underperforming Malaysia will begin to benefit from investor rotation (if nothing else), and ask whether interest-rate arbitrage is one of the forces behind strong Indian remittances. |
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
12/7/2009 3:02 PM |
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| Five Corners Global - Vol. 10, Issue 24
| | Please see our latest Five Corners - Global, in which Anatole and Charles consider the rhyme and reason behind the Dollar weakness. Charles looks at what the expected trend in central bank foreign reserves should tell us about gold, Dan reviews historical equities performance in the month of December, Pierre delves into some interesting developments in New Zealand as funding moves ex-banks, and Ahmad considers the fate of Dubai after last week's debt deferral news. |
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
11/30/2009 3:16 PM |
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| Five Corners - Asia, Vol. 1, Issue 9
| | Please see our latest Five Corners - Asia, in which Joyce considers whether Chinese banks will ultimately end up financing the country's stimulus program, while Meng Meng looks at how Korea managed to pull off such a quick and confident economic turnaround this year. We also have pages on the apparent comeback in Macau, on whether the Indonesia asset rally has further to go, and on the potential for growth in financial cooperation between Taiwan and China. Finally, Gavin has a book review on "Africa's Silk Road" - by Harry Broadman. |
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
9/11/2009 6:20 PM |
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| Five Corners Asia - Vol. 1, Issue 8
| | Please see our latest Five Corners - Asia, in which Meng Meng looks at how the impending DPJ victory could shake up Japan. Charles, meanwhile, digs a bit deeper into Japan's history--reviewing the country's propensity for interest rates that are 'unnatural' (in the Wicksellian sense). This week we also look at why signs of life in the Asian local-currency bond market point towards an "End to the Circle of Manipulation"; what Singapore is doing to attract bankers to its city; and what the current ETF fad means for Asian markets. |
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
8/28/2009 6:36 PM |
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| Five Corners Asia - Vol. 1, Issue 6
| | Please see our latest Five Corners – Asia, in which Louis argues that there is more behind China’s bull market than a wave of liquidity, that foreign participation remains weak, and that massive productivity gains facilitated by infrastructure spending may carry China’s growth story well into the future. Of course, like in many countries around the world, the past few years have been very hard on China’s private sector, while the public sector has found more support. However, Gavin argues that this should not be interpreted as a structural shift back toward the command economy of the 1970s. Lucy argues that the current HK$-US$ peg is unlikely to go anytime soon, and instead will continue to fuel the current surge in Hong Kong asset prices. Finally, Stephanie explains why the RBI is unlikely to tighten its monetary policies, despite the weak monsoon season and the rising threat of food price inflation. |
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
8/3/2009 12:12 PM |
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| Five Corners - Asia, Vol. 1, Issue 3
| | Please see our latest Five Corners - Asia, in which Louis asks whether Taro Aso and the LDP are about to face the same type of upheaval Gordon Brown and the British Labour Party are undergoing, and if so, why this could spell an end to the "zero rate" era in Japan. Lucy looks at why Taiwan’s equities rally is losing a little steam, Daniel examines the growth outlook in Australia, and Joyce the reasons why China's property market may not be as expensive as it seems. Gavin meanwhile focuses on recent attempts to build new power blocs among emerging markets, including the use of "yuan diplomacy" in Central Asia, and Pierre reviews "Prisoner of the State: The Secret Journal of Premier Zhao Ziyang". |
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
6/22/2009 11:08 AM |
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| Five Corners Global - Vol. 10, Issue 10
| | Please see our latest Five Corners, in which Charles argues that increased uniformity in global regulations helped trigger the global crisis, Anatole explains why central banks do not need an "exit strategy"--but in fact will be keeping rates low for much longer than many expect, and Will looks at why debt monetization does not lift all boats equally. This week we also have two pieces focusing on China--one about SOE profits, and the other focusing on whether China's equities rally will stall as bank regulators slow the pace of credit creation. |
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
5/18/2009 3:15 PM |
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| Five Corners - Vol. 10, Issue 9
| | Please see our latest Five Corners, in which Anatole considers why Europeans are more bearish than American investors, Charles examines a strange disconnect between BAA bond yields and 30-year mortgages, and Louis looks at the ramifications of a thaw in China-Taiwan relationships. Staying on the China theme, Louis explains why he believe the "next bubble" will be in China real estate, while Arthur and Gavin dissect the sectoral distribution of the phenomenally large number of new loans that Chinese banks issued in the first quarter.
China's ability to rapidly expand loan growth is in contrast to the limits India faces at the moment, an issue Stephanie examines. Meanwhile, Lucy looks at why the Hong Kong Dollar has been pushing to the strong side of its peg since the Lehman collapse, and the implications for HK credit conditions. Finally, we have a book review on "The Big Rich" by Bryan Burrough. |
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
5/4/2009 6:10 PM |
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| Five Corners, Vol. 10, Issue 8
| | Please our latest Five Corners, in which Anatole argues that Britain need not raise taxes to deal with a rising deficit, Charles shows that US savings have jumped more than the official data reflects, and Louis runs through client's arguments for why inflation may balloon. |
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
4/20/2009 10:43 AM |
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| Tech--A Call Option on Growth
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
3/10/2009 12:37 PM |
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| On the Preference for Liquidity
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
3/10/2009 12:36 PM |
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| The Return of Classical Asset Allocation
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
3/10/2009 12:33 PM |
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| Germany Will Pay!
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
3/10/2009 12:32 PM |
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| Better Late Than Never
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
3/10/2009 12:31 PM |
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| Five Corners - Vol. 10, Issue 5
| | Please see our latest Five Corners, in which Anatole looks at the Bank of England's aggressive moves into quantitative easing, Louis worries that he has been hearing the phrase, "Germany will pay!", just a little bit too often of late, and Charles notes the return of the classical asset allocation models.
This edition also features pieces on why the tech sector is outperforming, whether the pummeling of the Swedish Krona has become overdone, and why Taiwanese investors are repatriating funds back home for the first time in decades. |
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Forum Admin / Forum Admin
3/6/2009 10:33 PM |
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